Archive for November, 2014

MBS

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

Mortgages are sitting either side of flat at the moment. Several factors have combined to cap gains. Origination flows today have been robust. Money managers have been sellers of specified pools. Fast money types have taken profits on gains achieved in the recent MBS outperformance. One dealer noted that he wants ...

Treasury Market Update

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

The Treasury market continues its somnolent and soporific existence today. One market maker noted that volume was running 55 percent to 60 percent of normal. Some of that lassitude results from the calendar and the imminent year end. Traders are in protect your scarce asset mode and will not being ...

How Many 10 year notes do you need?

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

If Kocherlakota were a client and I were still hawking bonds for a living if I had heard this bullish peroration on the phone I would  have immediately asked him how many 10 year notes he wanted me to offer him. He thinks that it will be inappropriate to hike ...

Guest Post

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

This is another guest post from my friend Steve Liddy. He discusses the next zone of resistance for the S and P (which he sees up against a trend line at 2051). He attaches some Bloomberg charts which do not translate well to my low budget blog so the blame ...

MBS

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

MBS spreads are 1 to 1+ tighter to Treasuries today. There was chunky originator selling yesterday and again this morning. The offset to that is a Fed purchase of $1.8 billion later this morning. Mortgages are well bid and at the tightest spreads of the year end user money is still ...

Swaps

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

Swap spreads are mostly tighter today. Two year spreads are 1/4 basis point tighter. Five year spreads are also 1/4 tighter. Ten year spreads are unchanged and thirty year spreads are in 1/4. One portfolio manager looks for wider spreads, He thinks that most financial issuance is done for the year ...

Corporate Bond Issuance

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

Via Bloomberg; IG CREDIT: List of New Issues Expected to Price in U.S. Today 2014-11-18 14:50:45.682 GMT By Greg Chang Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of new issues expected to price today: * World Bank $benchmark Aaa/AAA * 10Y Global * Spread set MS+8 vs Guidance MS+9 area vs IPT MS+9 area * Books: BNP, ...

Oil , the Economy and Equities

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

This piece is by Goldman Sachs and a fully paid up subscriber forwarded it to me: Via Goldman Sachs: From Goldman: Conversations we are having with clients: Denial, anger, and acceptance of lower oil price Denial, anger, and acceptance are three psychological stages of grief. We visited portfolio managers in Texas this week and conversations ...

PPI/CPI Analysis

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:   Today at 9:06 AM The October PPI report is a perfect example of why this release should be ignored.  The headlines were stunning: a 0.2% rise in the headline figure (in a month when energy costs were plunging) and a 0.4% jump in ...

What to Watch for Today

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 8:30am: PPI Final Demand m/m, Oct., est. -0.1% (prior -0.1%) * PPI Ex-Food and Energy m/m, Oct., est. 0.1% (prior 0.0%) * PPI Final Demand y/y, Oct., est. 1.3% (prior 1.6%) * PPI Ex-Food and Energy y/y, Oct., est. 1.5% (prior 1.6%) * PPI Ex-Food ...