Archive for November, 2014

Draghi Speech Overnight

Friday, November 21st, 2014

Mario Draghi spoke overnight and pundits have placed a dovish spin on his speech. The WSJ story says that he added a new wrinkle with his statement that there is an urgency about getting inflation higher. Via the WSJ:   By Brian Blackstone and Todd Buell Updated Nov. 21, 2014 5:17 a.m. ET FRANKFURT—European Central ...

Eclectic Stuff from Merrill Lynch

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

Via Merrill Lynch Research: Full of energy, underweight on banks. We like Banks from a fundamental point of view as profitability benefits from the improving US economy and higher interest rates, while at the same time enhanced regulatory oversight protects bond holders. However, the time has finally come for us to ...

Distressed Debt in China Undercounted

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

This is an interesting nugget via Bloomberg: Distressed Debt in China? Ain’t Seen Nothing, DAC Says By David Yong Nov 20, 2014 8:06 PM ET (Corrects title in fourth paragraph.) Bad debts in China are well underestimated because authorities persist in propping up weak companies and bailing out local investors, according to DAC Management ...

Bullard Says Fed Boxed in on June 2015 Rate Hike

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

Bullard says the market anticipates rate hikes at meeting at which there is a press conference and that makes June a likely target. He suggests a press conference after every meeting so that traders can not game the system. He looks for 3 percent growth next year and continued declines in ...

Alibaba Pricing

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

The Alibaba deal has been launched and will price sometime this afternoon. The last Bloomberg story I read said the book was an astounding $57 billion for $8 billion in bonds. The pricing process will now (as we speak ) involve a food fight as the leads allocate bonds. That ...

TIPS Result

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

Via a fully paid up subscriber: Treasury auctioned $13bn in reopened 10yr TIPS at 0.497% versus a 1:00pm level of 0.503% so the auction came 06bps thru 0.6bp thru      (6-auction average is 0.1bp thru) Bid/Cover 2.57X (6-auction average 2.50X) Indirects 62.4% (6-auction average 52.9%) **above average** Directs 8.1%    (6-auction average 10.0%) Dealers 29.5%  ...

Goldman Sachs on 2015

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

Goldman Sachs with their best trade ideas for next year. There are six weeks until the calendar reads 2015 so I always think it is strange to issue that forecast now. Goldman Sachs Economic Research Global Viewpoint – Issue No.: 14/02 Nov. 20, 2014     Our Top Trade Recommendations for 2015   We release the first eight of ...

Some Ali Baba Guidance

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: BFW 11/20 15:41 *ALIBABA $BENCHMARK 10Y FIXED NOTES GUIDANCE +128-130 BFW 11/20 15:41 *ALIBABA $BENCHMARK 7Y FIXED NOTES GUIDANCE +115-117 +------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ *ALIBABA $BENCHMARK 20Y FIXED NOTES GUIDANCE +148-150 2014-11-20 15:41:41.100 GMT Information from person familiar with the matter, who is not authorized to speak publicly and asked not to be identified. --JAMES HOLLOWAY -0- Nov/20/2014 15:41 ...

Treasury Update

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

One dealer reports very heavy selling of 7s post the Philly Fed.

In re Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The 10:00 indicators were not top shelf, but they were extremely robust. Existing home sales advanced in October to a 5.26 million unit pace, the best reading in over a year.  The data point to a market that is returning to health and normality.  Distressed ...