Archive for November, 2014
Friday, November 28th, 2014
Via Kit Juckes at SocGen:
Good morning. FX weekly link is above. Meanwhile, Black Friday sees consumers all over the world spend the money they have saved (or will save) thanks to cheaper oil prices, on gifts for others (or themselves?). Walking through the dealing room this morning I got the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on On the Consequences of the Oil Price War
Thursday, November 27th, 2014
This is an informative and interesting article in the tiering of bank credit. This time the tiering is intra firm as holding company bonds cheapen to bonds issued by the operating entity of the same bank.
Via Bloomberg:
Bank Holding Company Bonds Fray as Traders Fret Over Risk
By John Glover Nov 27, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Bank Credit
Thursday, November 27th, 2014
OPEC decided to pass on cutting output and the result is dire in several places. Oil is an obvious victim as the price plummets. As I write this WTI is off $5.14 about 7 percent and trades at $68.57. The bigger victim is the Russian Ruble which has fallen off ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Oil Roils the Waters
Thursday, November 27th, 2014
As we prepare to give thanks here in the States Sovereign bond yields in Europe are plummeting as inflation data is soft and the anticipation of some type of additional stimulus increases. This morning 10 year Germany approached 70 basis points and 10 year Spain has dropped to 1.90. There ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on European Bond Yields Plummet
Wednesday, November 26th, 2014
The tumbling price of energy has begun to take a toll on banks as loans to energy entities are now decidedly underwater. It is not quite Penn Square Bank but Barclays and Wells Fargo are looking at stiff losses on an $850 million dollar loan made to two energy companies.
Via ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Distressed Lending to Energy Companies
Wednesday, November 26th, 2014
Via CRT Capital:
We are cautiously optimistic about the prospects for this afternoon's 7-year supply. The absence of any meaningful concession is a bit troubling; however the broader flight-to-quality that has been supporting Treasuries should stoke demand for the new issue. The early schedule might limit the set-up, as could the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Seven Year Note Auction
Wednesday, November 26th, 2014
Lower prices for commodities are denting the outlook for farm equipment sales as farmers do not replace machinery as quickly.
Via WSJ:
Deere Projects Sharp Decline in Farm-Equipment Sales
By
Angela Chen
Nov. 26, 2014 7:38 a.m. ET
Deere DE +0.31% & Co. projected a 20% decline in farm equipment sales for ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Micro Story
Wednesday, November 26th, 2014
Via Bloomberg:
ECB May Consider Sovereign QE Next Quarter, Constancio Says
By Jeff Black and Jennifer Ryan Nov 26, 2014 6:12 AM ET
The European Central Bank will next quarter consider buying sovereign debt in relation to the size of each euro member’s economy if current stimulus proves insufficient, Vice President Vitor Constancio ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Constancio on ECB Sovereign QE
Wednesday, November 26th, 2014
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Dollar Firmer and OPEC in Focus
- The odds of a substantial output cut from OPEC have slipped
- The continued fall in oil prices won't do the ECB any favors in its battle to arrest disinflationary forces
- We continue to be impressed with the legal, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Tuesday, November 25th, 2014
The price of oil plummeted in 1986 as the Saudis opened the spigot and forced the price of a barrel of oil down to $10. The attached Bloomberg story details the price war.
That was a transformative time for the bond market as participants still carried the psychic scar of the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Oil Price War and Bond Yields