Archive for November, 2014
Saturday, November 15th, 2014
This time a Barron's article which acknowledges that the herd sees lower oil prices as stimulative as consumers will have extra money to spend. This article notes that lower oil prices and lower commodity prices in general may soon come to be viewed as a sign of weak demand with ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on More on Oil Prices
Saturday, November 15th, 2014
Barron's posted a very interesting article on the energy sector which deviates from the conventional wisdom on the drop in oil prices. The conventional wisdom holds that the drop in oil prices is the equivalent of a tax cut as consumers will have extra dollars in their collective wallets as ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Unconventional View on the Slide in Oil Prices
Friday, November 14th, 2014
This is an excellent piece from Merrill Lynch Research on why one should expect wider credit spreads in the US.
Via Merrill Lynch Pierce Fenner and Smith Research:
When the tide goes out. For credit the most prominent unintended consequence of increased financial regulation is reduced liquidity via the collapse in dealer ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Wider Credit Spreads
Friday, November 14th, 2014
Steve Liddy, the author of this post, is a friend and former colleague who because of the vicissitudes of the fixed income business is currently without a job. He is a serious student of the market and writes cogent, concise and actionable analysis. He was a friend of the blog ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Friday, November 14th, 2014
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment gauge came in a little stronger than expected at 89.4 for early November, vs. 86.9 in October. However, perhaps more importantly in the big scheme of things, the long-term (5- to 10-year) inflation expectations figure dropped from 2.8% ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on On Consumer Confidence and Inventories
Friday, November 14th, 2014
The Treasury curve is flattening quite a bit today. I opened 5s 30s at 144.9 (530AM) this morning. That spread is now inside of 142. I can not find the buyer(s) of bonds. One dealer reported chunky selling of intermediates by real money and another gentleman had observed speculators procuring ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Market Update
Friday, November 14th, 2014
This is a very long Bloomberg article which describes the race to Treasuries by banks seeking to comply with an acronymic jumble of rules imposed by regulators.
Via Bloomberg:
Banks Continue Stockpiling USTs as Reg Phase-In Date Nears
2014-11-14 14:30:00.0 GMT
By Alexandra Harris
Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Banks continue to amass Treasuries
as part of ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Acronymic Angst
Friday, November 14th, 2014
Corporate bond spreads when measured by the IG 23 are 1/4 basis point wider at 65 to 65 1/2.
Long dated financial paper is unchanged to 1 basis point tighter.
Here is a run of that long dated bank and finance sector.
C 24 120/117 120/117 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Corporate Bonds
Friday, November 14th, 2014
Mortgages have opened firm this morning. One trader noted that when rates decline MBS has tightened a little and when rates rise they tighten even more. Yesterday the Fed announced its buying plans and surprised dealers with word of a $1.2 billion buy today which the writer noted was close ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on MBS
Friday, November 14th, 2014
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
The October retail sales report is better than expected but not by enough to fundamentally alter the big
picture economic view. Retail sales advanced by 0.3% in October, for both the headline and ex-autos
tallies, one tenth ahead of the consensus in both cases. “Core” retail ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Retail Sales Recap