Archive for October, 2014

FX

Wednesday, October 8th, 2014

Via Marc Chandler ar Brown Brothers Harriman: Will the FOMC Minutes end the Dollar's Correction? - We are sympathetic to the risk of a hawkish read of the FOMC minutes, but do not believe that it reflects policy - Although we played down the fundamentals driving the dollar's heavier tone so far this ...

October 08 2014 Opening

Wednesday, October 8th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities sold off early in the overnight session but have since rebounded and are registering new cycle lows . The yield on the benchmark 5 year note has slipped to 1.615 from 1.643 at 1015PM last night.  The last time that the 5 year note yield ...

Weidmann Channels His Inner Weimar Republic Genes

Tuesday, October 7th, 2014

Bundesbank President Weidmann sat for an interiew with the WSJ and attacked the ECB plan to purchase bonds as well as the plaintive cries of France for fiscal flexibility. To quote the story he signaled no flexibility. Via the WSJ: ECONOMY Bundesbank’s Weidmann Criticizes ECB’s Stimulus Measures Weidmann Warns That ECB Policy Risks Being ...

Eclectic Topics Via Merrill Lynch

Tuesday, October 7th, 2014

Via Merrill Lynch Research: October rates reversal. If September was all about rising interest rate risks (see Sep '14: Scared of the Treasury bear), October so far has been about undoing some of that. Following today's rates rally 10-year Treasury yields are now back to the lows from late August (while ...

Bond Benchmark

Tuesday, October 7th, 2014

Thirty year bond (The Long Bond) just made a new low yield for the year as it breached 3.05 percent.

Dudley Comments

Tuesday, October 7th, 2014

Via a fully paid up subscriber: --  Bloomberg Bullet Pts and Story -- *NEW YORK FED'S DUDLEY COMMENTS IN SPEECH IN TROY, NEW YORK *DUDLEY CALLS FORECASTS FOR MID-2015 RATE RISE `REASONABLE VIEW' *DUDLEY SAYS 2015 RATE INCREASE WOULD BE `VERY GOOD NEWS' *DUDLEY STILL SEES `SIGNIFICANT UNDERUTILIZATION' IN JOB MARKET *DUDLEY: INFLATION COULD MOVE UP ...

Kocherlakota Comments

Tuesday, October 7th, 2014

This guy is so dovish here that they should test his urine! Via a fully paid up subscriber:   *FED'S KOCHERLAKOTA MAKES REMARKS AT SPEECH IN RAPID CITY *KOCHERLAKOTA SAYS LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES `DISTRESSINGLY WEAK' *KOCHERLAKOTA: FED HAS BEEN TOO TIGHT TO OFFSET CRISIS SHOCK *KOCHERLAKOTA: DOESN'T SEE PCE INFLATION BACK AT 2% BEFORE 2018 *KOCHERLAKOTA ...

Trewasury Market Miscellany

Tuesday, October 7th, 2014

The bond market rally today is ferocious and continues unabated. I think the rally is the result of a perfect confluence of events which have now damaged bonus pools all over the trading world. The dealer community had turned extremely bearish following the DOTS presentation and while some of that bearishness ...

Three Year Result

Tuesday, October 7th, 2014

Via CRT Capital: *** A solid takedown with a 0.4 bp through-stop and non-dealer bidding at 53% vs. 51% norm *** * 3-year auction stops at 0.994% vs. a 0.998% 1-pm bid WI. * Dealers were awarded 47% vs. 49% average of the last four 3-year auctions. * Indirects get 35.5% vs. 33% norm. * ...

Superb Analysis

Tuesday, October 7th, 2014

Via Richard Gilhooly of TDSecurities: As we head into the 3yr note auction the Treasury market is extending its rally, even as Bunds closed unchanged after the weakest IP data since 2009. The 10yr spread is now at 147bp over Bunds and 30yr Treasury yields have broken below the October 1st ...