Archive for October, 2014

Seven Year Note Auction

Thursday, October 30th, 2014

Via CRT Capital: 7-year Auction Outlook * Technicals are a bit bullish with stochastics starting to curl over from relatively oversold levels and against the yield highs from Oct 10.  That was the day that provided the start of the now filled gaps.  That day's high was 2.04% and so with Wednesday's ...

Citibank on UK Rate Hikes

Thursday, October 30th, 2014

Via a fully paid up subscriber across the pond: UK VIEW: Citi are amending their forecast for first MPC rate hike to Q2-2015 from Q1-2015 and now see rates being at 1.25% by end of 2015, down from 1.75% previously. Citi have also cut UK growth forecasts to 3.0% from 3.3% for 2014 and ...

Corporate Bond issuance List

Thursday, October 30th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: List of New Issues Expected to Price in U.S. Today 2014-10-30 14:03:33.160 GMT By Greg Chang Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of new issues expected to price today. * Toronto-Dominion Bank $benchmark Aa1/AA- * 5Y fixed and/or FRN sr bank notes * IPT: 5Y fxd +80 area, FRN 3mL equiv * ...

Morning Miscellany

Thursday, October 30th, 2014

The violent flattening of the yield curve continues unabated. A little while ago I marked 5s 30s at 143 which is 11 tighter than where it traded at 145PM yesterday. The FOMC defied expectations and spoke with a big stick.  market participants were set up for a dovish outcome and ...

ECB Story

Thursday, October 30th, 2014

Via a fully paid up subscriber across the pond: NY Think Tank on ECB: Hearing NY think tank on ECB doing the rounds, says that the resumption of the dollar rally and stabilized inflation expectations have taken some pressure off the ECB as it considers extending asset purchases beyond ABS and ...

Corporate Bond Spreads

Thursday, October 30th, 2014

Corporate bond spreads as measured by the IG 23 are opening 1 1/4 wider with the index quote 66.5/ 67. Long dated financial paper is 1 basis points to 2 basis points wider to Treasuries. It is early but corporate issuance light so far. TD Bank is bringing a 5 year note, ...

GDP

Thursday, October 30th, 2014

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: The US economy grew at a relatively strong 3.5% q/q pace in Q3, bettering the market consensus for a more modest 3.0% q/q advance. The growth in activity, however, was down sharply from the unsustainable brisk 4.6% pace in the previous quarter. Gains in personal spending ...

MBS

Thursday, October 30th, 2014

In MBS space 15 year paper is suffering as the curve flattens. One dealer notes that 15 year paper lags the Treasury curve and 30 year MBS by 3 to 4 ticks. He believes that the street is off sides and is adjusting positions.  

More on Greece

Thursday, October 30th, 2014

I noted earlier that 10 year Greece had widened significantly to Bunds (+ 56). Here is a Bloomberg story which offers some background. Via Bloomberg: (BN) Greek Euro Dilemma Is Back as Minister Predicts Volatility (3) Greek Euro Dilemma Is Back as Minister Predicts Volatility (3) 2014-10-30 11:07:53.124 GMT (Updates with bond prices in 4th paragraph) By ...

What to Watch for Today

Thursday, October 30th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Oct. 25, est. 285k (prior 283k) * Continuing claims, Oct. 18, est. 2.352m (prior 2.351m) * Continuing claims, Oct. 18, est. 2.352m (prior 2.351m)</li></ul> * 8:30am: GDP, 3Q, est. 3% (prior 4.6%) * Personal Consumption, 3Q, est. 1.9% (prior 2.5%) * GDP Price ...