Archive for October, 2014

What to Watch Today

Thursday, October 9th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Oct. 4, est. 295k (prior 287k) * Continuing Claims, Sept. 27, est. 2.410m (prior 2.398m) * Continuing Claims, Sept. 27, est. 2.410m (prior 2.398m)</li></ul> * 8:45am: Bloomberg Oct. U.S. Economic Survey * 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Oct. 5 (prior 34.8) * 10:00am: Wholesale ...

FX

Thursday, October 9th, 2014

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Doves Push Back, but the Center will Hold - The dovish FOMC minutes have pushed the consolidative tone into a dollar correction and moved equity markets higher - Despite the noise surrounding the minutes, we restate our approach of focusing more on the Yellen-Fischer-Dudley troika for ...

More Flow Information

Thursday, October 9th, 2014

I just received an updated email on client flows and that trader reports that central banks have sold 2 year through 7 year paper. He continues to see sellers of 5s versus bonds north of 151. Separately the 10 year yield traded as low as 2.296 overnight.

Fed Speakers

Thursday, October 9th, 2014

There is quite a bit of Fedspeak today. Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will appear on a panel with Mario Draghi today. Governor Tarullo will speak on regulatory reform. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Lacker will opine on the labor markets. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Williams will ...

October 9 2014 Opening

Thursday, October 9th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities, on balance, have continued the rally which began yesterday with the 200PM release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. The 2 year note yield continued its descent and trades at 0.444 percent versus the 0.46 basis point close in New York.The yield on ...

Evening Miscellany

Wednesday, October 8th, 2014

In early Tokyo trading one dealer reports real money in Japan selling 5s to buy 2 year and 3 year paper. The 5 year note trades at around the 1.57 level currently. That is approximately where it traded a little more than six months ago at Ms Yellen's infamous inaugural press ...

Merrill Lynch Research on the FOMC

Wednesday, October 8th, 2014

Via Merrill lynch Research: More than minutes away from Fed rate hikes. Clearly the FOMC Minutes lacked their typical hawkish tilt, and on top of that contained some more dovish passages. Financial markets, that are obviously very concerned about rate hiking risks, reacted correspondingly with a bull steepening front end of ...

What to Watch for Tonight

Wednesday, October 8th, 2014

Via Pierpont Securities: BANK OF ENGLAND RATE DECISION, WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED DESPITE SUSTAINED ECONOMIC/EMPLOYMENT GAINS AS THE MPC HAS SHIFTED ITS FOCUS TO WAGE GROWTH. AUSTRALIA: The monthly employment report takes on even greater interest as the Statistics Bureau (ABS) announced that the +121K increase reported in the seasonally adjusted data ...

Some Dealer Flows

Wednesday, October 8th, 2014

Via a fully paid up subscriber: Flows: Our NY session US rates flows saw better buying in the long end by both real$ and hedge funds. In Swaps the theme of the day was better paying in the front by hedge funds which was immediately covered post Fed minutes and hedge ...

FOMC Analysis

Wednesday, October 8th, 2014

Via Stephen Stanley at Pierpont Securities: The September FOMC minutes were interpreted by the financial markets as quite dovish due to a newswire headline or two referencing the downside risks to the domestic economy and inflation brought on by global economic weakness/dollar appreciation.  While that idea is included in the minutes, ...