Archive for October, 2014
Thursday, October 9th, 2014
A fully paid up subscriber across the ocean says that there is real money and leveraged receiving in the long end of the swaps market. Swap spreads are precisely where I noted earlier today. Two year spreads are in 1/4 and five year spreads are in 1/2. The 10 year ...
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Thursday, October 9th, 2014
In my previous note I anonymously referred to some research which I can now attribute and link to.
Bespoke Investment has a nice post on their website on big down days followed by big up days and then subsequent price moves over a longer horizon.
Via Bespoke Investment:
Big Down Day Followed ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Big Up Days and Big Down Days
Thursday, October 9th, 2014
According to a fully paid up subscriber the last time we had a big down day followed by big up day was in October 2011. On October 18 the S and P rallied 2.04 percent after falling 1.94 percent the prior day. On October 19 the S and P declined ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Equity Volatility and the Bond
Thursday, October 9th, 2014
Via the WSJ:
Meet Edward Quince, the Secret Federal Reserve Chairman in 2008
Edward Quince was arguably the most powerful person in the world in the fall of 2008, with the fate of financial markets resting on his high-stakes decisions.
It turns out he didn’t actually exist.
Mr. Quince was the pseudonym then-Federal Reserve ...
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Thursday, October 9th, 2014
Via the NYTimes:
Asia Pacific
Hong Kong Government Scraps Talks With Protesters
By MICHAEL FORSYTHE and KEITH BRADSHEROCT. 9, 2014
HONG KONG — The standoff between Hong Kong’s government and pro-democracy protesters intensified Thursday as the democrats demanded that the city’s top official be impeached over a multimillion-dollar payment from an Australian company ...
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Thursday, October 9th, 2014
Swap spreads are tighter across the board today.Two year spreads are narrower by 1/4 basis point and five year spreads are 1/2 basis point tighter. Ten year spreads are in a basis point and thirty year spreads have narrowed 1 1/2 basis points. One portfolio manage with whom I speak ...
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Thursday, October 9th, 2014
The treasury yield curve has flattened from levels which prevailed when I wrote at 500AM. The 5s 30s spread was 152 and it is back inside of 150 as we speak. The 5s 10s spread has moved to 75.5 from 77.5 and 10s 30s has narrowed to 73.7 from 75 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Market Update
Thursday, October 9th, 2014
Via ian Lyngen at CRT Capital
Me
Today at 9:58 AM
We are constructive on this afternoon’s long-bond auction and see the most meaningful risk as a strong non-dealer bid that prompts a stop-through. The dovish Fed Minutes expressed concern about the slowing global economy and provided some fundamental justification for ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Long Bond Auction Today
Thursday, October 9th, 2014
There is a bold call for a significantly steeper yield curve at the end of this one.
Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities:
The old 5yr note has rallied 37bp since the local high of 1.877% on the day after the FOMC meeting and if you have not been bullish until now, there ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on 5s 30s to 200?
Thursday, October 9th, 2014
Here is an opening run of long dated bank and finance paper and IG 23.
10/8 CLOSE 10/9 OPEN CHANGE
C 24 123/120 124/121 +1
WFC 24 97/94 98/95 ...
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