Archive for October, 2014

The Pain from Lower Oil Prices

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

The FT posted an article yesterday detailing the pain coursing through the Middle East as the price of oil drops. The article notes the two approaches to the problem. One is to reduce production and stabilize prices and eventually they would move higher as supply moves from the market. The ...

Nate Silver on the Senate Battle

Tuesday, October 14th, 2014

I just found this after I published my last one which was also about the battle for the Senate. Nate Silver of ESPN and the 538 blog has increased the chances of the GOP taking the Senate to 66 percent from 60 percent previously. In essence he says that the Democrats are ...

Battle for the Senate

Tuesday, October 14th, 2014

Three weeks from now the election returns will be rolling in and we will have a handle on how much of a lame duck Barack Obama will be in his (thankfully) final two years in office. Most of the pundits who model the battle for the Senate are increasingly drawing ...

Miscellany

Tuesday, October 14th, 2014

The dealers with whom I have conversed as I return to blogosphere report robust safe haven buying in the front end by an eclectic group of domestic buyers and foreign official institutions. Most of the buyers have manifested concentrated interest in the 12 month and shorter section of the Treasury ...

Germany Channels Herbert Hoover

Tuesday, October 14th, 2014

Via WSJ: EUROPE NEWS Germany Rejects Calls to Spend More to Stave Off Recession in Europe German Government Officials Say Signs of Slower Growth Won’t Derail Plans for 2015 Balanced Budget By ANTON TROIANOVSKI Oct. 14, 2014 12:34 p.m. ET BERLIN—German Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s government rejected calls for it to boost public spending and retreat from ...

IEA Cuts Outlook for Oil Demand

Tuesday, October 14th, 2014

I have had technical issue with the blog since last evening which appears to be resolved. let's see if this works.   Via the WSJ: IEA Cuts Outlook for Oil Demand Growth to Lowest in Five Years Prospect of Unchecked Supply Has Hit Global Oil Prices in Recent Weeks By SARAH KENT   Updated Oct. 14, 2014 10:32 ...

Goldman Cuts Japan Growth Forecast

Monday, October 13th, 2014

Via a fully paid up subscriber and Bloomberg: Goldman Cuts Japan Growth Outlook Citing Consumer Mood By Kevin Buckland Oct 13, 2014 3:12 AM ET Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecast for Japanese growth as consumers remain shy about spending six months after a sales tax increase. The economy may expand 0.1 percent ...

Nobel in Economics

Monday, October 13th, 2014

Via WSJ: STOCKHOLM—French economist Jean Tirole has been awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science for his analysis of market power and regulation, seen as a vital component in understanding the regulation of industries with a few powerful firms. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences on Monday honored Mr. Tirole citing ...

FX

Monday, October 13th, 2014

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Drivers for the Week Ahead The Dollar and the Investment Climate - The dollar's rise thus far is too small to have much impact on the US macro-economy.  It is among the various financial variables policy makers monitor.   - Euro area data remains poor - UK rate ...

Idiosyncratic Risk

Sunday, October 12th, 2014

Craig Broderick is Chief Risk Officer for Goldman Sachs and speaking at a conference this week end he said that he expected an idiosyncratic event that would shock market participants. Broderick is concerned about liquidity and the effects that new capital requirements will have on market making. Via Bloomberg: Goldman’s Broderick Says ...