Archive for October, 2014

JPM Duration Survey

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Via a fully paid up subscriber October 14, 2014 ·         In the all clients survey, the percent of longs increased by 4, the percent of neutrals increased by 3, and the percent of shorts decreased by 7 ·         The all clients survey shows the fewest net shorts since April 7, 2014 ·         The active ...

PIGS Redux

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Spreads are widening in the PIGS. The 10 year in Greece is the big mover as it is 67 wider to Treasuries a few minutes ago. Portugal and Spain are each about 7 basis points wider. I watch 10 year Spain (because I can observe it on a WSJ page) ...

Belly Richens

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

I just marked 2s 5s 10s at 27.7. In the moments prior to Ms Yellen's inaugural presser on March 19 that spread was 9.5 and following her "six month" faux pas the spread quickly moved to 26 and then settled for a while into a trading range between 20 and ...

Factoid

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: * USTs pared their gains as U.S. stocks rebounded; still, 2Y yield closed below its 200-DMA for first time since May 27, 3Y for first time since March 3; 5Y-30Y yields declined to YTD lows

What to Watch for Today

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Oct. 10 (prior 3.8%) * 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Oct., est. 20.25 (prior 27.54) * 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance m/m, Sept., est. -0.1% (prior 0.6%) * Retail Sales Ex Auto, est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%) * Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4% ...

FX

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Via Marc Chandler at brown Brothers Harriman: Oil Prices Continue to Drop - Oil prices continue to collapse - UK unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in six years - Chinese inflation continues to moderate.  September CPI came in at 1.6% y/y, down from 2.0% in August - Brazil and South Africa report retail ...

Long Bond in Australia

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

This offering in Australia weighed a bit on the back end: Via the Herald Sun THE Australian government has sold $7 billion of a new line of April 21, 2037 Treasury bonds. THE Australian Office of Financial Management said the bonds were priced at a yield to maturity of 3.945 per cent. That ...

Seconday Market Trading of Corporate Bonds

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Client Flows Led Active Issues; DAIL Perp Expected 2014-10-15 09:44:38.742 GMT By Robert Elson Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The final Trace count for secondary trading was $12.2b vs $9.6b Friday and $16.2b the previous Tuesday. 10-DMA $14.2b; 10-DMA of only Tuesday sessions $13.7b. * 144a trading added another $1.8b of IG volume * AXP ...

Flows

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

I left this out of my previous post . Real money Japanese investors bought 10 years and 10 year spread product. Central banks sold 3s through 5s. Oil refuses to recover and is off about $1.

October 15 2013 Opening

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are registering modest gains in overnight trading. The belly of the yield curve is the best performing sector as investors anticipate that rate hikes from the US central bank are a dream deferred. The yield on the 5 year note has tumbled to 1.435 from ...