Archive for October, 2014

Fixed Income Channels Wilhelm Steinitz

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Wilhelm Steinitz was an Austrian who was champion of the chess world from 1886 to 1894. He is famous in chess circles for the aphorism that victory is achieved through an accumulation of small advantages rather than from one single stunning move. I think that chess thought is the perfect analogy ...

PIGS

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Greece 10 year is now out 76 basis points versus US Treasury while Portugal is wider by 21 and Italy is wider by 10. Looks like we will soon know who is swimming naked!

Swap Spreads

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Swap spreads are only a touch wider on the day. Front end spreads had narrowed dramatically earlier and as green euros rallied some 45 basis points. With a modicum of stability back in the market spreads are wider on the day. Two Year spreads are 1/2 wider on the day ...

Ebola

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Via a fully paid up subscriber across the pond: *BARCELONA AIRPORT UNDER QUARANTINE AS 6 PASSENGERS CONFIRMED POSITIVE FOR EBOLA VIRUS

Very Fat Tail

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Bill Glenn is a former colleague of mine who works for R Seelaus and Co as a trader and technical analyst. Here is a piece he just sent out on the unique nature of today's move. This is hard to read as it translates to my screen. The date is followed ...

Treasury Update

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Volume in 5 year note is massive and stands at $120 billion thus far today. At this hour it would normally be at $40 billion to $ 50 billion. I am still hearing of central bank selling in the belly of the curve. There was also significant receiving by convexity clients.

Hoisington Still Bullish

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: RATES: ‘Ample Downside’ for Long UST Yields, Hoisington Says 2014-10-15 13:36:10.724 GMT By Monika Grabek Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Given “extremely soft” nominal growth trajectory, UST bond yields should continue falling as “similar circumstances have created declines in government bond yields in Europe and Japan,” Hoisington Investment Management’s quarterly report says. * “It is evident that ample ...

YIKES

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

I missed this for a doctor appointment unfortunately and had to do a double take when I looked at screens. Dealers report this as a massive stop out trade with panic and pandemonium palpable. One veteran bond trader described the market as untradeable. Another trader said that (just seconds ago) that market ...

Trifecta

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Via David Ader at CRT Capital: ** SEPTEMBER RETAIL SALES FALL 0.3%; EX-AUTOS DROP 0.2% -- RETAIL SALES MINUS AUTOS, GASOLINE FELL 0.1% IN SEPT. -- SEPT. `RETAIL CONTROL GROUP' SALES DECREASE 0.2% -- AUGUST RETAIL SALES RISE 0.6%, NO REVISION -- SALES AT U.S. CLOTHING STORES FALL 1.2%, MOST SINCE OCT. 2012 -- widespread weakness, ...

Swap Spreads

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

No panic here as spreads only marginally wider. Two year spreads are out 1/2 and 5 year spreads are out 1/4. Ten year spreads are out 5/8  and 30 year spreads are out 1/2.