Archive for October, 2014

Swap Spreads

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Swap spreads are wider today. Two year, five year and 10 year spreads are out 2 basis points and thirty year spreads are out one basis point. Traders cite rate locking against future corporate bond issuance, generalized risk aversion and speculative clients paying in the belly.

IP Analysis

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: Industrial sector output rebounded meaningfully in September, with production rising at a better than expected 1.0% m/m pace - marking the fastest monthly gain in this indicator since May 2010. The rise was well in excess of the market consensus for more modest 0.4% m/m advance, ...

Miscellany

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

It appears that some of the fear coursing through the market is receding. Stock markets in  Italy and France have bounced off very ugly levels attained earlier. I watch 10 year Spain/US and Spain was + 31 to US at 515AM . That spread has narrowed to +22 a few ...

Plosser Channels Depression Era Fed

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Plosser wants to raise rates sooner rather than later and fears that the FOMC could fall behind the inflation curve. At the moment he is one of the few observers detecting inflation on the horizon. Via a fully paid up subscriber: DJ Fed's Plosser: Fed Should Raise Rates 'Sooner Rather Than Later'  ...

Corporate Bond Opening:Weaker

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Long dated bank and finance paper is 4 basis points to 7 basis points weaker than yesterday's weak close. The IG 23 is out 3 1/2 basis points. The only quote I have seen on the $2 billion 5 year JPM deal which priced yesterday at + 100 is 104/99.   10/15 CLOSE    ...

What to Watch Today

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Oct. 11, est. 290k (prior 287k) * Continuing Claims, Oct. 4, est. 2.380m (prior 2.381m) * Continuing Claims, Oct. 4, est. 2.380m (prior 2.381m)</li></ul> * 9:15am: Industrial Production, m/m, Sept., est. 0.4% (prior -0.1%) * Capacity Utilization, Sept., est. 79% (prior 78.8%) * Manufacturing ...

FX

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Via mark Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Global Markets Struggle to Stabilize - The global markets are struggling to regain some semblance of stability - We note that French bonds are not being dragged higher by the rally in bunds, but instead yields are up six basis points - Oil prices continue to fall - ...

Secondary Market Trading of Corporates Yesterday

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Volume Higher; Spreads Move to 3Bps From 2014 Wides 2014-10-16 10:05:52.685 GMT By Robert Elson Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The final Trace count for secondary trading was $15.2b vs $12.2b Tuesday and $15b the previous Wednesday. 10-DMA $14b; 10-DMA of only Wednesday sessions $14.6b. * 144a trading added another $2b of IG volume * AMGN ...

October 16 2014 Opening

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are registering solid gains when viewed versus levels which prevailed at 822pm in New York. The market is once again extremely volatile and relationships are changing as I compose this electronic missive. So for context everything I write here is as of 532AM New York ...

Short Sterling Selling Off

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Short sterling is selling off and a friend across the pond blames fear of margin calls. Via a fully paid up subscriber across the pond: SHORT-STERLING: Front-end short-sterling contracts are trading lower and underperforming the back-end -- in line with eurodollar and euribor strip. Traders note" fear of margin calls" driving front-end ...