Archive for September, 2014

Draghi Interview

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

The ECB stands ready to use unconventional tools in its arsenal to fight deflationary pressures if that proves necessary according to Mario Draghi in an interview in a Lithuanian magazine. Via the WSJ: Europe Markets ECB Fully Determined to Counter Risks to Inflation Outlook, Says Mario Draghi Central Bank Stands Ready to Use Additional ...

Some Money Managers Turning Cautious on Junk

Wednesday, September 24th, 2014

This is a very long article at the WSJ which delineates the thinking of some money managers who are fearful of junk bonds following a nearly six year rally in risky assets which some think is now a little long in the tooth as the FOMC (some think) prepares to ...

Treasury Market Update

Wednesday, September 24th, 2014

The Treasury market sold off over the course of the afternoon as a confluence of factors joined together to push rates higher. The 5 year note auction was one of the principal culprits. The dealer community took its largest share of the auction since January and with more bonds than they ...

Swaps

Wednesday, September 24th, 2014

Swap spreads are 1/4 wider across the curve. One portfolio manager noted real money hedging as a factor as well as less corporate issuance following the barrage early in the week. The same portfolio manager noted a pickup in vol in swaptions as hedge funds buy straddles in the 5 year ...

Low Volume Day

Wednesday, September 24th, 2014

Via CRT Capital: The session remained relatively low-volume throughout the day and ended at 85% of the 10-day moving-average in cash terms.  5s were the most active issue – not a surprise given the auction – taking a 35% marketshare.  10s managed just 24%, while 2s and 3s combined to take ...

What to Watch Evening Edition

Wednesday, September 24th, 2014

Via Robert Sinche of Pierpont Securities: JAPAN: National CPI data for August, Tokyo CPI data for September. BBerg consensus again expects a slight deceleration to 3.3% YOY for the headline National CPI, down from the cycle peak of 3.7% in May. AUSTRALIA: Job Vacancy data for August, with recent months having shown ...

Five Year Note Auction

Wednesday, September 24th, 2014

At 100PM today Jack Lew and his acolytes will sell $35 billion 5 year notes. I think this auction is a liquidity event and an opportunity for those shorts in the sector to covertly take back some of their position. There is still a monster short in the current issue ...

TIPS

Wednesday, September 24th, 2014

Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities: Today at 9:49 AM TIPs are opening the day with a continuing bid after yesterday's bounce, with risk assets failing to see follow-through selling overnight after a weak close in the US yesterday. Not that risk assets are rallying, but EM FX is attempting to ...

What to Watch Today

Wednesday, September 24th, 2014

Via the good folks at Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Sept. 19 (prior 7.9%) * 10:00am: New Home Sales, Aug., est. 430k (prior 412k) * New Home Sales m/m, Aug., est. 4.4% (prior -2.4%) Central Banks * 12:15pm: Fed’s Mester speaks in Cleveland * 1:00pm: Fed’s Evans speaks ...

September 24 2014 Opening

Wednesday, September 24th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have registered modest losses in overseas trading. I can not pick a real theme for the session. The German IFO index fell to a seventeen month low and Federal Reserve Bank President George averred that she favors normalizing rates now. Mario Draghi said he will ...