Archive for September, 2014

Mighty Greenback Rally

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

Via FT: MarketsDollar rally catching the eye of chartists The dollar has been steadily rising since early May, but it's only in the last couple of weeks that its ascent has broken records. The dollar index - a broad measure of the greenback against its biggest trading partners - has clocked ten weeks ...

Prescient Piece

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

This is a prescient piece written by Michael Gayed of the pensionpartners.com Blog. He wrote this on September 21 and given his forewarning I d like to know what he is thinking today. Via Michael Gayed at pensionpartners.com. ATAC Week in Review: Inching Towards the Great Epiphany September 21, 2014Michael Gayed “I always liked ...

End of Day

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

Via Richard Gilhooly of TDSecurities: A 6bp rally in the long bond today was closely followed by intermediates, with 5s and 7s rallying 5.7bp, leaving the curve marginally flatter adjusted for the 5yr roll. Rates were already lower before the economic data and while headline DGO dropped sharply, underlying details were ...

Logorrheic Lockhart

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

Via a fully paid up subscriber: *LOCKHART: POSSIBLE TO OVERINTERPRET THE 'DOTS' RATE FORECASTS *LOCKHART: COMFORTABLE USING 'CONSIDERABLE TIME' A BIT LONGER *LOCKHART: PRICES FIRMED IN SPRING, NOW 'PRICES SOFTENING' *LOCKHART: SMALL SWINGS IN EQUITY MARKETS `NOT OUR CONCERN' *LOCKHART WOULD RATHER TAKE RISK OF BEING TOO LATE ON RATE HIKE *LOCKHART: 1ST QTR TIGHTENING MIGHT ...

En Fuego, Todavia

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

I hope my Spanish is correct and in English the Treasury market is "on fire,still". The 10 year note flirts with 2.50 and the Long Bond is creeping towards 3.20. The Long Bond is not the super star of the day in the rally. I see 5s 30s flatter on ...

Patient Fed

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

This Reuters article (just out) recaps the communal cooing of the doves at the central bank and their concern that the FOMC should wait to hike rates until the Committee actually sees the whites of inflation's eyes. I do not see any inflation on the horizon myself as wage growth ...

Seven Year Note Auction

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

Via Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital We are apprehensive about the prospects for this afternoon’s 7-year supply.  The absence of any meaningful concession is a bit troubling; however the broader flight-to-quality that has been supporting Treasuries might stoke demand for the new issue.  7s have seen above-average volumes this morning with ...

Swaps

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

Swaps spreads are 1/2 basis point wider in 2s 5s and 10s and a full basis point wider in 30s. I have not heard of any interesting flows.

Treasury Market Stream of Consciousness

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

Wow. I did not expect this today. I thought it would be a sleepy day. Well I think some of the price explosion stems from the 5 year note auction yesterday. One trader noted that the issue (the WI) had rallied too much yesterday. The roll richened about a basis point ...

Equity Crater

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

Via a fully paid up subscriber: In equities there is chatter of a huge sell program by a very large institutional investor. Story is that this investor sold 180 names for chunky size.