Archive for September, 2014

Spain US 10 Year Spread

Friday, September 5th, 2014

As a Bloombergless market participant I observe peripheral bond spreads on the WSJ page which is a fair substitute as the quote are almost real time and they are also free. Anyway, this morning's view of 10 year Spain is shocking. The yield on that bond is down to 2.107 ...

Reflections on the Near Term Course of the Euro

Friday, September 5th, 2014

Via Martin Enlund Chief FX Strategist for Nordea Markets (sans the charts as they would not take and I apologize): * EUR/USD dropped in line with 3m fixing rate spread yesterday * If yesterday’s ECB announcement shall be seen as a formal QE announcement, the EUR will soon bounce * To drag the ...

Yen at Six Year Low

Thursday, September 4th, 2014

Via the FT: Yen hits six year low as US dollar strengthens 40 minutes ago The euro isn't the only depreciating currency worthy of note this week. The Japanese yen just touched a six year low in early trading, hitting 105.71 per dollar. Since markets began to price in an electoral victory for Shinzo ...

Federal Reserve Channels Piketty

Thursday, September 4th, 2014

This study by the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve staff shows in stark relief the uneven nature of the recovery in the period 201o through 2013. According to the story at TheHill.com those at the bottom of the pack saw real incomes shrink in that ...

Liquidity Coverage Ratio and the Market

Thursday, September 4th, 2014

This is an interesting and informative piece on the impact of the Liquidity Coverage Ratios on various asset classes within the high grade universe. Via Ginnadiy Goldberg at TDSecurities: Final LCR Rules Little Changed: Optimization Ahead Despite the absence of sweeping changes to the final US Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rules voted into ...

Important Levels

Thursday, September 4th, 2014

One trader in a note suggested that 2.47 has been a level at which buyers have emerged on 10s recently and so price action around that level would be critical. In addition the same trader noted that the stop on The Long Bond at the last auction was 3.225.

Cyclical vs Structural

Thursday, September 4th, 2014

Via Bloomberg; Fed Economists Say Low Workforce Participation Mostly Structural 2014-09-04 14:41:17.684 GMT By Craig Torres Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve economists concluded in a new research paper that much of the decline in labor force participation since 2007 is due to long-lasting “structural” causes such as the aging of the workforce. Fed officials are debating how ...

ECB Yield Curve and Treasury Yield Curve Compared

Thursday, September 4th, 2014

This is an excellent and short note from Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities on what happened to the US curve (5s 30s) in the run up to the QE announcement in late 2010 and what he expects from the curve in Europe. I could not reproduce the chart but he does ...

Updated Corporate Issuance List

Thursday, September 4th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: The Province of Ontario B'Mark Aa2/AA-    7 yr Global spread set ms+ 34 Kommuninvest 500mm Aaa/AAA  2 yr spread set ms -2 Credit Suisse AG acting through NY Branch B'Mark A1/A    10 yr ipt +130 area Barclays PLC B'Mark Ba1/BBB    10 yr    sub tier 2 ipt + low 200's The Bank of Nova ...

Thoughts From an End User

Thursday, September 4th, 2014

I just had a conversation with an end user about the market. I spend much more time with salesmen and traders and their view is much more narrow. I wanted something from 50,000 feet rather than sea level. This portfolio manager expressed a view that rates are not quite bullet proof ...