Archive for September, 2014

Steeper Curve and Higher Yields Next Week

Friday, September 5th, 2014

That is at least the thought of my former colleague and friend Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities; Via TDSecurities: The only part of the NFP reaction to stay the course of the trading day has been the steeper curve, with 5-30s going into the 3pm close 5.3bp steeper and near the highs of ...

Flows

Friday, September 5th, 2014

This is an aggregation of several emails regarding client flows this morning. Prior to report one dealer reports clients outright selling in the long end. Subsequent to the report the same dealer notes real money buying in the belly. One dealer reports chunky selling in the 10 year sector by real money. ...

Labor Pains

Friday, September 5th, 2014

Net revisions subtract 28K from prior two months. The 5s 30s spread moves from 149.8 just prior to 154.6 now.

Pre Labor Corporates

Friday, September 5th, 2014

Long Financials are unchanged to 1 basis point wider and the IG 22 is 1/4 wider at 57  57 1/2.

Action and Reaction

Friday, September 5th, 2014

Bloomberg News has an informative post which recaps the price action following the last six labor reports and I offer it here for the edification of all who read the blog: Via Bloomberg: RATES: Treasury Market Reaction to Last Six Employment Reports 2014-09-05 11:45:00.1 GMT By Monika Grabek Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Of the last ...

FX

Friday, September 5th, 2014

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Dollar Mixed As Markets Digest the ECB News - The ADP report has been a fairly good guide in recent months of the government's initial estimate of private sector payroll changes - The data will not change the Fed’s reaction function - Weak Swedish and strong German data ...

What to Watch Today

Friday, September 5th, 2014

Via the good folks at Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Aug., est. 230k (prior 209k) * Change in Private Payrolls, Aug., est. 215k (prior 198k) * Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, Aug., est. 18k (prior 28k) * Unemployment Rate, Aug., est. 6.1% (prior 6.2%) * Underemployment Rate, Aug. (prior ...

Bank of America on Credit Spreads

Friday, September 5th, 2014

Analysts at Bank America are concerned about spreads widening and bought protection last night. Via Bank America : The sum of three positives is negative. Recent positive developments in the US, the Eurozone and Ukraine have us increasingly concerned about interest rate risk in credit spreads. First US economic data is really ...

Secondary Corporate Bond Trading Yesterday

Friday, September 5th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: High Trading Volume Accompanies $58b Issuance Week 2014-09-05 09:58:34.604 GMT By Robert Elson Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The final Trace count for secondary trading was $15.1b, the highest volume since $16.1b June 25, vs $14.4b Wednesday and $8.1b the previous Thursday. 10-DMA $9.9b; 10-DMA of only Thursday sessions $11.9b. * 144a trading added another ...

September 05 2014 Opening

Friday, September 5th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have registered very small changes in overnight trading when viewed against levels which prevailed at 515PM in New York yesterday. However in initial trading the 30 year traded at 3.22 and the 10 year traded around 2.46 and those levels did hold. For now the ...