Archive for September, 2014
Monday, September 8th, 2014
Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities:
Treasuries have completely reversed this morning's rally as the USD has surged on all fronts, while equities have moved lower and commodities remain under pressure. The bond sector is out-performing in the sell-off, as the curve 5-30s is 3bp flatter, undermining the argument that it was ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Trenchant Market Analysis
Monday, September 8th, 2014
As a result of the financial crisis (if you missed it, it was a ripple in the trading water in 2008 and 2009) international regulators have imposed stringent capital requirements on large banks to reduce the chance of failure which made the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy so unique. The WSJ ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Locking the Barn Door with Horse Miles From Barn
Monday, September 8th, 2014
The Treasury market surrendered early gains as the overnight impetus from the possible dissolution of the United Kingdom was not enough to motivate buyers in front of supply scheduled for the remainder of the week. I have heard of pension fund buyers of 25 year and longer paper and speculators ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Monday Miscellany
Monday, September 8th, 2014
This story was coursing through the market earlier today.
Via Bloomberg:
Fed Research Shows Investors Underestimate Path of Rate Increase
2014-09-08 17:00:00.1 GMT
By Jeff Kearns
Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Low volatility across financial
markets may signal investors are underestimating how quickly the
Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, according to
researchers at the San Francisco Fed.
Investors also ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on San Francisco Fed Research Piece
Monday, September 8th, 2014
This is the latest from Bill Gross via the Pimco Twitter feed:
Gross: German and Japanese 5-year yields both at .15%. Market expects US 5-year to be 2.27% this time next year. No way.
I would concur. I do not think that analysts here are placing sufficient emphasis on the FX consequences ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Pimco
Monday, September 8th, 2014
Swap spreads are mostly unchanged today except for the 2 year note which is about 1/2 basis point wider. With the massive issuance of corporate bonds last week and the swapping of much of that issuance spreads had narrowed 2 1/2 basis points across the curve. One trader with whom ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Swap Spreads
Monday, September 8th, 2014
Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities:
Political risk has stepped up a notch over the weekend after the latest UK poll continued the momentum in favour of Scotland seceding, with the first major poll over 50%, albeit a narrow 51/49. Momentum towards separation has been gaining just in the past month and ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on More on Scotland and UK
Monday, September 8th, 2014
Via Bloomberg:
BPCE B'Mark Baa3/A-(Fitch) 10.5 yr sub tier 2 144A Reg S
ipt +230 area baml,c,td
PECO Energy Co 300mm (ng) Aa3/A- 30 yr FMB
6 mo par call prior
mus,miz,rbs(act) ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Issuance Thus Far
Monday, September 8th, 2014
Attached is a research piece published by Nordea analysts Aurelija Augulyte and Lena Sellgren back on June 30. It discusses the implications for rates and the pound if independence receives the thumbs up sign.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Scottish Independence and the Pound
Monday, September 8th, 2014
The Treasury market is at its best price levels of the day. Dealers report light volumes but a bullish tome. One market maker with whom I spoke noted the UK situation as an important backdrop. He also cited the weaker than expected labor report and thought that at levels close ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Update.