Archive for September, 2014

September 10 2014 Opening

Wednesday, September 10th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have registered small losses when viewed against levels which prevailed at 815PMM last evening. The yield on the benchmark 5 year note has climbed to 1.77 from 1.76. The yield on the benchmark 10 year note has climbed to 2.514 from 2.505 and the yield ...

Changing Language

Wednesday, September 10th, 2014

Attached is a Bloomberg story which discusses the internal debate at the Fed on dropping the "considerable period" language from the statement. I do not think the report adds to our store of knowledge but it is a nice recap of who has said what at the Fed . It ...

Another Poll Shows Democrat Chances of Holding Senate Fading

Tuesday, September 9th, 2014

The WSJ is carrying an article on the latest WSJ/NBC poll which contains little good news for Democrats. The results show that the President's popularity is at worse levels than Clinton and Bush the Son's rating in their ugly years of 1994 and 2006. Via the WSJ: Democrats' Hopes for Senate Control ...

Risk Aversion Fades

Tuesday, September 9th, 2014

This is a very interesting article by Scott Grannis who authors the Calafia Beach Pundit blog. He argues that risk aversion is fading and that is exemplified by the decline in the price of gold and the sell off in 5 year TIPS. He suggests though that with the decline ...

ObamaCare Follies

Tuesday, September 9th, 2014

Casey Mulligan is an economics professor at the University of Chicago and in this op ed piece in the WSJ this morning he skewers the Affordable Care Act and the disincentives to working and hiring embedded in the bill. He lays out a clear and concise case that the law ...

Three Year Result

Tuesday, September 9th, 2014

Via CRT Capital: *** A lackluster takedown with a tail of 0.3 bp and non-dealer bidding at 53.4% vs. 51% norm *** * 3-year auction stops at 1.066% vs. a 1.063% 1-pm bid WI. * Dealers were awarded 46.6% vs. 49% average of the last four 3-year auctions. * Indirects get 33.1% vs. 32% ...

Gilhooly on Three Year Auction

Tuesday, September 9th, 2014

Via Richard Gilhooly at TDsecurities: The WI 3yr note is trading close to 1.07% and the auction stop at 1pm looks set to be the highest since April 2011, when 3yrs stopped at 1.28%. The highest in recent months was 99.2bp in July. We expect overseas Official money to be strong ...

Three Year Note Analysis

Tuesday, September 9th, 2014

Via  Ian Lyngen of CRT Capital: We are cautious about this afternoon’s $27 bn 3-year auction and see the risk of a tail in light of the ongoing bearish tone that we don’t think has fully run its course. On the other hand, there is a meaningful outright and curve concession ...

MBS

Tuesday, September 9th, 2014

Mortgages are one tick wider on the day after opening two ticks tighter. Hedge funds have been modest sellers and one real money client christened the street with a large block of bonds which is currently pressuring spreads wider.

For Political Junkies Only

Tuesday, September 9th, 2014

Stuart Rothenberg is an observer of the American political scene and writes about that topic at RollCall. He published a piece yesterday in which he stated that a GOP wave is forming in the Senate and he predicts that the GOP will gain seven seats and thankfully will control that ...