Archive for September, 2014

Volatile Curve and other Musings

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

The curve is shifting all about. The 5s 30s spread moved from 157.5 prior to FOMC to 154.3 and then rebounded to 157 and now it is trending back toward 156. One dealer noted that he had observed real money establishing steepening trades prior to the statement and it was his ...

Hilsenrath Opines

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

Via Jon Hilsenrath of WSJ: Economy Fed Cautious as It Maps Out Rate-Hike Strategy 'Considerable Time' Phrasing Is Retained as Officials Move to Manage Easy-Money Exit By Jon Hilsenrath Updated Sept. 17, 2014 2:06 p.m. ET WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to hold steady on interest rates, as the central bank foresees a rate ...

Cloudy Dots

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

This whole dot thing which is supposed to increase transparency is stupid. She just said that ultimately the path of the funds rate is data dependent so in my opinion these dots might be out of date at the next meeting. There attempt at transparency has actually made their policy ...

Flows

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

I have heard of light flows only with an eclectic group of buyers focused on the 10s and 30s.

Curvology

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

Bond is an early star following statement. The 5s 30s spread has narrowed from 157.5 just prior to release to 154.3. The 10s 30s spread has narrowed from 76.5 to 74.5.

Resting Positions

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

I talked to market participants in several sectors to see where they thought the pain trade was at FOMC time later today. In the Treasury market the traders with whom I conversed thought that some of the short has been cleaned up the last few days but they believe there is ...

Corporate Bond List Thus Far

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

Via Bloomberg and Brief Today: * IADB 500mm (ng) Aaa/AAA ** 4Y Global ** Launched ms -5 vs Guidance ms -4 area ** Books: C,DAIWA * Alcoa Inc B'Mark Ba1/BBB- ** 10Y Sr  101% coc Put ** IPT 5.50% area ** Books: CS,MS

NAHB Index

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

Via CRT Capital * SEPTEMBER NAHB HOMEBUILDERS INDEX RISES TO 59 FROM 55 * NAHB HOMEBUILDER INDEX EXCEEDS MEDIAN FORECAST OF 56 * NAHB BUILDERS INDEX CLIMBS TO HIGHEST SINCE NOVEMBER 2005 * TRAFFIC OF PROSPECTIVE HOMEBUYERS INDEX HIGHEST SINCE OCT. 2005 * AUGUST HOMEBUILDER SENTIMENT INDEX UNREVISED AT 55 Sept.  Aug.  July  June    May  ...

TIPS Revisited

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

Inflation protection is not in vogue this morning following the weak CPI report. The market has inflicted the most pain on holders of 5 year TIPS as the breakevens on that bond have dropped to about 175 from 172. The 10 year and 30 year sectors have also observed declines ...

Inflation Report Analyzed

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: Consumer price inflation momentum slowed markedly in August, with the headline CPI index declining at an unexpected 0.2% pace (down 0.202% m/m at 3 decimal places). This was the biggest drop in this index since March last year, and the weakness was in stark contrast to ...