Archive for July, 2014
Tuesday, July 22nd, 2014
A fully paid up subscriber forwarded this research note to me overnight. Two economists on the staff of the Board of Governors prepared the piece and it paints an optimistic picture of the labor market. Here the opening paragraph and I will link to the remainder:
"In this FEDS Note we ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Important Research Note From Fed
Monday, July 21st, 2014
Via the FT:
July 21, 2014 4:02 pm
China debt tops 250% of national income
By Jamil Anderlini in BeijingAuthor alerts
China’s total debt load has climbed to more than two and a half times the size of its economy, underscoring the difficult challenge facing Beijing as it seeks to spur growth without sowing ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Credit Bubble in China
Monday, July 21st, 2014
Via the WSJ;
Markets
Small-Cap Stocks Run Into Big Trouble
By
Dan Strumpf
July 21, 2014 7:10 p.m. ET
Small-company shares' summer swoon deepened Monday, underscoring investor concern about valuations.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies, typically those with market values below $1 billion, dropped 0.4% Monday, outpacing a 0.3% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Small Cap Stocks Swoon
Monday, July 21st, 2014
Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities:
A quiet Monday produced out-sized moves in the yield curve, with a more modest move in the outright levels at both the short and the long-end. The 5-30s curve ended off the day's flattest levels of 5bp flatter, at 158bp, with bonds nearly 3bp lower and ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Market Commentary Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities
Monday, July 21st, 2014
Via Pierpont Securities:
CHINA: Conference Board Leading Economic Index for June, which rose 0.7% MOM in May; stronger gains would be needed to support a growth acceleration.
JAPAN: The All-Industry Activity Index for May, a proxy for monthly GDP growth, is expected to rebound +0.6% (BBerg consensus) after a sharp -4.3% plunge ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Data
Monday, July 21st, 2014
There was some interesting moves on the yield curve today with many pairs and butterfly reaching levels not observed in quite some time. The 5s 10s 30s fly traded rich today. It has been positive for quite some time but when I last marked it it was trading -0.25 basis ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Crazy Curvology
Monday, July 21st, 2014
Mortgages are 1 tick to 1 + tighter on the day. There was an 1145 buyback and they have softened post the buyback. They traded 2 to 2+ tighter pre buyback. Origination thus far modest at $600 million. The Fed will buyback $10 billion this week in contrast to $ ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on MBS
Monday, July 21st, 2014
The corporate bond market is quiet and softer. My favorite source in that sector reports bank and finance, TMT, and utilities and energy paper is (or is it are?) 1 basis point to 2 basis points wider on spread. He says very little is trading and the softness reflects the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Corporate Bonds
Monday, July 21st, 2014
The Treasury market is posting modest gains in some maturities and robust returns in the Long Bond. The yield curve continues its flattening trend and 5s 30s is at 158.9 basis points as I compose this electronic missive. This morning at the crazy hour I turned this PC on the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Curvology and Other Miscellany
Monday, July 21st, 2014
This is another interesting article on low vol and the responsibility of global ZIRP for that situation.
Via the FT:
Markets Insight
July 21, 2014 4:28 am
Why geopolitics barely trouble investors
By Russ Koesterich
Central bank policies have banished concerns about possible ‘contagion’
It’s quiet, too quiet.
Until last week, that was a good way to ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Vol, Central Banks and Geopolitical Risks