Archive for July, 2014

Corporate Bonds

Tuesday, July 15th, 2014

Corporate bond spreads are open better today and are 1 basis points to 2 basis points tighter. I noted in a previous post Ms Yellen's comments in her testimony in which she expressed concerns about lower rated credits and said the Fed is monitoring that sector. That comment has not ...

Curvology and Equity Sell Off

Tuesday, July 15th, 2014

Traders report very little activity as most conclude as I have that Ms Yellen has imparted very little new information. I had marked 5s 30s at 169.7 at 955AM and it is now 170.6. I will guess that is noise. The equity market has sold off from levels which prevailed before ...

Yellen Text

Tuesday, July 15th, 2014

I did post a paragraph and entitled the excerpt "Cooing Dove". In retrospect that is a bit of hyperbole and excess permitted unto me as the blog's author. I have just finished reading the text and there is no new information here. The Fed is winding down the taper and ...

Cooing Dove

Tuesday, July 15th, 2014

Just reading this and looking for the money quotes. Just stumbled on this:   Although the economy continues to improve, the recovery is not yet complete. Even with the recent declines, the unemployment rate remains above Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' estimates of its longer-run normal level. Labor force participation appears ...

Acronymic Excess: O/N RRP/IOER

Tuesday, July 15th, 2014

The spread between the reverse repo rate and interest on excess reserves has become a hot topic for discussion since the FOMC included its discussion of the topic in the recently released minutes of its last meeting. In this article the author suggests that a too wide spread would "undermine ...

FTN on Retail Sales

Tuesday, July 15th, 2014

Via Chris Low at FTN Financial: Retail sales rose 0.2% in June, less than the 0.6% consensus, but April and May were both revised higher; April from 0.5% to 0.6% and May from 0.3% to 0.5%. Ex-autos and ex-autos & gas sales rose 0.4%, both less than the 0.5% consensus, but ...

Returning Cash to Shareholders

Tuesday, July 15th, 2014

This is an excellent article at Nate Silver's 538 blog on corporation's returning money to shareholders. There has been a surge in dividend payouts and a surge in share buybacks by companies. To me (and I think the author misses the point) the salient point is that those who are ...

Yellen Text Timing

Tuesday, July 15th, 2014

One of my usually impeccable sources had written that the text of the Yellen testimony would be available at 830AM New York time. he just retracted that and release is standard 1000AM New York time. he apologizes as do I for sowing the seeds of confusion. As an aside this is an ...

JPM Weekly Duration Survey

Tuesday, July 15th, 2014

All Clients                    Long       Neutral         Short July 14                           11             49                  40 July 07                           13             49                  38 June 30                             11            51                 38 Active Clients July 14                               8            38               54 July 07                             15              38              46 June 30                            8                  46             46   In the all clients survey, the percent of longs decreased by 2, the percent of neutrals remained unchanged, and the percent ...

Overnight Flows

Tuesday, July 15th, 2014

Via CRT Capital OVERNIGHT FLOWS:  Treasuries were modestly better overnight following the disappointing German ZEW release and renewed Espirito Santo concerns.  Overnight volumes were light with cash trading at 78% of the 10-day moving-average, while TY came in at 86% of norms.  5s were the most active issue, taking a 34% ...