Archive for June, 2014

Clinton’s Favor Goring Someone Else’s Ox

Tuesday, June 17th, 2014

The Clinton's (William Jefferson and Hilary Rodham) are supporters of the estate tax. There is a rub though in that they do not favor it when applied to their assets and they have taken steps to minimize the incidence of that tax by establishing trusts to shelter gains. The good ...

JPM Survey

Tuesday, June 17th, 2014

All Clients Date     Long   Neutral   Short  Changes 06/16     17      45       38        9 06/09     13      49       38        4 06/02     11      49       40       13   Actives Date     Long   Neutral   Short  Changes 06/16      8      38       54       15 06/09      8      38       54        8 06/02      0      46       54       23   The All Client Survey showed another modest decrease in net shorts and the fewest neutrals ...

Bloomberg Survey on Fed Tightening

Tuesday, June 17th, 2014

Bloomberg has a long post on a survey of economists which it conducted and the consensus of those dismal scientists is that investors are underestimating the pace of an eventual FOMC tightening.

Unfinished Business

Tuesday, June 17th, 2014

Hilsenrath and a buddy have a blog post on a meeting with in a meeting at the Fed which will discuss the mechanics of an eventual exit strategy by the Fed. Via Hilsenrath of the WSJ: HILSENRATH’S TAKE: FED TAKING UP UNFINISHED BUSINESS ON EXIT STRATEGY The Federal Reserve has unfinished business on ...

FX

Tuesday, June 17th, 2014

Via Brown Brothers Harriman: Softer-than-expected UK inflation is threatening to halt sterling's advancing streak to five sessions.  Consumer prices slipped 0.1% in May, while the consensus expected an increase of 0.1-0.2%.  The y/y rate of 1.5% represents a four year low.  The market responded in the expected way, pushing short-sterling interest ...

Bond Fund Exit Charges

Tuesday, June 17th, 2014

This was out yesterday but I had technology issues and couldnt post it. The FT reports that the Federal Reserve is quite concerned about bond funds as the consequences of heavy withdrawals by investors. The Fed views the funds as shadow banks and is concerned that in the event  of ...

FOMC Guesses

Tuesday, June 17th, 2014

A fully paid up subscriber forwarded this compendium of opinion regarding the FOMC meeting. I am not sure how it was compiled. Via a fully paid up subscriber: What the Banks are Thinking: Barclays: Fed to lower 2014 real GDP forecast but keep the medium-term forecasts unchanged. Will lower the u/e rate forecast ...

June 17 2014 Opening

Tuesday, June 17th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have registered modest declines in overseas trading with the belly of the curve lagging against the long end. In addition the front end continues to sag as it has since the Carney speech last Thursday which intimated that markets had mistakenly priced the chance of ...

Fed considers capital charge for short term funding

Tuesday, June 17th, 2014

Via the FT and a fully paid up subscriber: Officials seek to inhibit the use of short-term wholesale funding The US Federal Reserve is wrestling with two legacy issues: shoring up the financial system and unwinding its exceptional monetary policy. And one idea circulating at the central bank has big implications for ...

Aging Baby Boomer Alert

Tuesday, June 17th, 2014

On this day in 1972 Richard Nixon's minions conducted a third rate burglary at the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee at the Watergate Hotel in Washington DC. The actual break in itself and then the abuse of power in covering it up let to Nixon's fall from political  grace ...