Archive for June, 2014

Momentum Trade Ending

Sunday, June 22nd, 2014

The FT has an interesting article on the prospective response of central banks to the prospect of higher rates. It turns out they are rational actors and plan to reduce their holdings of fixed income securities and in an asset allocation trade they are moving into equities. The story notes ...

Tony Blair on the Iraq Crisis

Sunday, June 22nd, 2014

Tony Blair writes in the FT on the latest crisis in Iraq and lays it at the feet of the policy of non intervention in Syria which allowed the emergence of the radical jihadist ISIS group. Via the FT: June 22, 2014 5:31 pm Removing Saddam Hussein did not cause this crisis By Tony ...

More on Demographics

Sunday, June 22nd, 2014

I just read a Barron's interview with David Kelly of JPMorgan Funds and he spends some time at the beginning of the interview discussing a dismal future with 2 percent growth. He pins  some of the blame on demographics and weak cap ex spending. Via Barron's : Interview Why Stocks Remain the Best ...

Student Loan Agonies

Sunday, June 22nd, 2014

President Obama recently took steps to cap the amount of money which former students would be required to pay on their student loans at 10 percent of income and he has proposed forgiving those loans after twenty years. He would forgive the loans more quickly if one worked for the ...

Dick Cheney Speaks on Iraq

Sunday, June 22nd, 2014

Dick Cheney is a controversial fellow and does not shy away from the spotlight. Earlier this week he co authored an Op Ed in the WSJ which issued a scathing critique of President Obama's foreign policy and his treatment of Iraq in particular. He is back in the news today ...

Inflation Rears Its Ugly Head

Sunday, June 22nd, 2014

Janet Yellen at her press conference last week  dismissed concerns about higher inflation reading as "noise ".  The Business Insider blog has a compendium of street research pieces which all comment on the nascent inflation problem and its possible impact on FOMC policy. For now the Fed is firmly focused ...

Insurgents Incremental Gains in Iraq

Sunday, June 22nd, 2014

Via WSJ: Middle East News Sunni Insurgents Capture More Territory in Western Iraq Extremists Seize Town of Al Rutba, Military Installation in Rasa By Ali A. Nabhan And Matt Bradley June 22 2014 5:17 a.m. ET BAGHDAD—Sunni extremist militants expanded and reinforced their territories in Iraq's west on Saturday night, advancing their goal of slicing out an Islamist emirate ...

Demographic Dividend

Sunday, June 22nd, 2014

This is a fascinating (to me) story at the Wall Street Journal on demographics and growth. The author offers the theory that the baby boom generation produced an economy in which there were many more workers relative to retirees and children  and this disproportionate ration acted to increase economic growth. ...

New Normal UK Style

Saturday, June 21st, 2014

Andrew Haldane is chief economist for the Bank of England and in an interview published today he averred rates would not return to pre crisis levels. He offers the opinion that rates will eventually settle in somewhere between 2 percent and 3 percent. Via the WSJ: U.K. Interest Rates Won't Return to ...

More Draghi

Saturday, June 21st, 2014

Via Bloomberg Draghi Says Unlimited Cash Through 2016 Is ECB Signal on Rates 2014-06-21 10:23:26.989 GMT By Jeff Black June 21 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated that interest rates will probably remain low for at least another 2 1/2 years. “We have prolonged banks’ access to unlimited liquidity up to the end of 2016. ...