Archive for May, 2014
Monday, May 5th, 2014
Corporate Bond spreads are pretty much unchanged in very quiet trading. One salesman noted that bank and finance paper was maybe a basis point wider and everything else was unchanged. He said the theme continues to be spread compression as clients search for yield. There is some issuance today but ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Corporate Bonds
Monday, May 5th, 2014
Swap spreads are wider by 1/2 basis point in 2s and 1/4 basis point in 5s and 10s. Thirty year spreads are unchanged. I have heard of consistent paying across the curve but from my sounding it sounds like modest amounts at most shops.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Swap Spreads
Monday, May 5th, 2014
The Treasury market has sold off this morning and has not held the sub 2.60 levels on 10 year notes. The proximate cause of the rebound was the robust services ISM data and the rebounding equity market which is now positive. I have heard of central bank sellers of 2 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Market Update
Monday, May 5th, 2014
Via FTN Financial:
The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 55.2 in April, continuing its rebound from a four-year low 51.6 in February. The April reading was above the consensus estimate of 54.0, and up from 53.1 in March.
New orders rose from 53.4 to 58.2, the strongest reading since August and a ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on ISM Services
Monday, May 5th, 2014
Via a fully paid up subscriber in the trenches:
{EU} EURUSD was also in a tight range overnight (more or less 1.3865-75). We see spot struggling ahead of the 1.39 level the past few days but we think the market could give it a go with topside stops etc etc likely ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX Thoughts
Monday, May 5th, 2014
One fully paid up subscriber noted this morning that the 2s 10s spread is approaching some key levels. The 50 day moving average has recently crossed the 200 day and the 100 day moving average is set to cross the 200 day shortly. The spread is currently around 216 basis ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Some Curvology
Monday, May 5th, 2014
I posted an article over the weekend on the demand for long duration assets. I noted a change in rules by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Board which would penalize underfunded pensions as well as the ongoing demand for bonds by investors looking to lock in gains achieved in equities. Bloomberg ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Monday, May 5th, 2014
Via Mark Chandler of Brown Brothers :
Yellen’s testimony is a risk because investors are still getting used to her communication style. And arguably, she is getting used to presenting as the Fed chief, though her resume in public service is extensive and impressive. However, the risk of her going off ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Monday, May 5th, 2014
In the ongoing debate about labor market slack two academics have made their contribution to the conversation. The NYTimes reports that David Blanchflower , a Dartmouth economics professor , and Adam Posen President of the Petersen Institute for International economics argue that the Federal Reserve should focus on wage growth ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Labor Market Slack
Monday, May 5th, 2014
The London market and the Tokyo market for Treasuries were closed. There is a bit of a risk off trade in markets which are open. German and French equity markets are each down over one percent as of this writing at 633 AM. Futures market trading indicates that the S ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on May 05 2014 Opening