Archive for May, 2014
Tuesday, May 6th, 2014
Via Soc Gen Research an excellent discourse on the participation rate:
On Our Minds: US - Parsing the participation rate (A. Markowska) (4p)
Last Friday's employment report brought heightened attention to the labor force participation rate. Declining by 0.4%, it explained the entire April drop in the unemployment rate to 6.3%. What ...
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Tuesday, May 6th, 2014
Via the good folks at Bloomberg:
RATES: Longs Lowest Since June, Neutrals Rise, JPM Survey Shows
2014-05-06 11:14:34.850 GMT
By James Holloway
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- The JPMorgan Treasury Client Survey
for the week ended May 5 vs week ended April 28.
* Longs 10 vs 12
* Neutrals 63 vs 57
* Shorts 27 vs 31
* Net ...
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Tuesday, May 6th, 2014
This is an excerpt from the morning piece of William O Donnell at RBS Securities . He places the decline in spreads and the search for yield in historical context.
Via RBS Securities:
On the first point, the global 'wall of cash' is pushing into nearly every market these days. For example, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Wall of Money
Tuesday, May 6th, 2014
Mark Chandler of Brown Brothers on FX
There is one story today: the stronger European service sector PMIs. Euro zone retail sales rose 0.3% m/m, but was mixed on net when taking the February revisions into account. Still, today’s data pushed the US dollar lower against all the major currencies and most ...
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Tuesday, May 6th, 2014
Prices of Treasury coupon securities registered modest declines in a holiday shortened overnight session in which the action occurred in European time. In Europe PMI data proved to be robust and that precipitated the price declines. The composite PMI for the Eu was at its highest level since May 2011 ...
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Monday, May 5th, 2014
Some economists have called into question the belief that long term unemployed hold influence wage inflation by holding it down. The FT's Robin Harding has an interesting and informative article on the topic. If the long term unemployed do not influence wage inflation,then the FOMC would have to seriously consider ...
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Monday, May 5th, 2014
Mixed Bag of Research via Merrill Lynch:
The sum of two risks is zero. Last Friday we went strategically neutral on high grade, citing little upside and significant uncertainties - including most importantly interest rate and geopolitical risks. We remain very comfortable with that move. However, in an interesting development on ...
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Monday, May 5th, 2014
Via RBS Securities:
Our Treasury flows were fast money selling of 10’s vs. 7’s, MBS-linked selling of 10’s, central bank buying of 7’s, and central bank selling of 5’s. In swaps, we had fast money putting on a 1y1y/2y1y flattener. In TIPS, we had real money buying of 5’s and selling ...
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Monday, May 5th, 2014
Via Robert Sinche of Pierpont Securities :
AUSTRALIA: After steady trade deficits during 2012 and 2013, Australia started 2014 with large trade surpluses and the Bloomberg consensus is for another $A1bn surplus in March. Following the release of the Trade data…the RBA will announce the overnight cash rate, with all 33 ...
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Monday, May 5th, 2014
This is a nice summary of rates research presented via Bloomberg:
RATES RESEARCH ROUNDUP: UST Yield, Positioning Views
2014-05-05 16:42:48.293 GMT
By Monika Grabek
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Views on 10Y UST yields after
Friday’s stronger-than-expected NFP, quarterly refunding
auctions, Yellen speech this week.
* BofAML
* “Asset shortage” is driving bid for duration, BofAML
strategists Priya Misra and ...
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