Archive for May, 2014

Treasury Miscellany

Tuesday, May 27th, 2014

The curve is somewhat flatter than when I wrote at 600Am this morning. The 5s 10s spread is 99.6 versus 101 earlier and 5s 30s is 185 now versus 186.1 in my early run. I have not checked regarding specific flows in the market yet but several traders have commented that ...

Research Roundup

Tuesday, May 27th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: RATES RESEARCH ROUNDUP: UST Yield, Positioning Views 2014-05-27 13:22:33.529 GMT By Monika Grabek May 27 (Bloomberg) --  Views on UST yields, 2Y/5Y/7Y auctions, curve spreads and Fed reaction function: * Alliance Bernstein * UST 10Y yield, now about 2.5%, can reach 3.5% by year- end, a forecast that is not inconsistent with “Fed’s view of a lower ...

Corporate Bonds

Tuesday, May 27th, 2014

Today's corporate bond list thus far via Bloomberg: Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. 400mm Baa1/A-  10 yr 3 mo par call prior ipt +115 area Wells Fargo & Co B'Mark A2/A+ 1/2 part  3 yr fxd and/or frn sr holdco ipt 3 yr fxd +mid/hi 40's frn 3mlequiv Wells Fargo & Co B'Mark A3/A    12 yr ...

FX

Tuesday, May 27th, 2014

Via Mark Chandler of Brown Brothers: Some nationalist partisans are claiming the results of the EU Parliament represent a "political earthquake" but this is not immediately clear, and it may be just an exercise in hyperbole.Indeed, investors took the electoral success in stride. The duopoly of the center-right and center-left will ...

Bloomberg on Terminal Funds Rate

Tuesday, May 27th, 2014

In my early morning note I commented on the terminal funds rate. Attached is an excellent article from Bloomberg which contains a compilation of opinion and views on the topic. Via Bloomberg: By Daniel Kruger, Liz Capo McCormick and Craig Torres May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The bond market, unparalleled in predicting shifts in the ...

Ukraine

Tuesday, May 27th, 2014

The markets are ignoring for now the tensions in Ukraine. I guess it is priced in at the current level of tensions and hostility. The WSJ is carrying a story about the fighting yesterday in which the Ukraine government recaptured an airport from a group of pro Russian separatists who ...

May 27 2014 Opening

Tuesday, May 27th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have registered modest losses in overseas trading (relative to Friday closes). The yield on the 5 year note has moved incrementally higher to 1.539 from 1.529. The yield on the 10 year note this morning is 2.549 versus 2.536 late Friday and the yield on ...

WSJ on Bond Market Rally

Monday, May 26th, 2014

The WSJ has an interesting article on the (unexpected) Treasury market rally which has caught many portfolio managers and traders wrong footed. The article notes that some investors are now doubling down on risky debt as they believe that a recovering economy will short circuit the Treasury rally and lead ...

Utility Sector Downgrade by Barclays

Monday, May 26th, 2014

Bonds issued by utilities are a sleepy backwater as the industry is stable and low risk. Barron's posted a piece from Barclays in which that firm advises clients to underweight the sector. Barclays believes that solar energy is a real threat to the industry and at current levels bonds issued ...

Cooing Like a Dove

Monday, May 26th, 2014

Mario Draghi of the ECB spoke in Portugal today (Monday) as the sounds emanating from his mouth were rather dovish. He noted that the pernicious spiral of low inflation and weak lending risks derailing the recovery. He also remarked that credit restraints risked putting a break on the recovery. The ...