Archive for May, 2014

Corporates

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

Corporate bond spreads are unchanged to maybe a basis point tighter in bank and finance. My corporate bond source said that he was surprised that the higher rates had not brought in buyers. Maybe this is similar to the response in the swap market which I alluded to earlier in ...

Swaps

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

I spoke with a swap trader who said flows in that market were muted. Spreads are unchanged to a tad wider. he offered the opinion that traders expected that a sell off of  this magnitude in Treasuries would have brought tighter spreads. Instead he said the large gain in payrolls ...

More on Participation Rate

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

Via David Ader of CRT: *** A quick follow-up on the decline in participation and UNR *** Overall participation declined to 62.8% Apr vs. 63.2% Mar -- which accounted for the bulk of the improvement in the Unemployment rate.  What is interesting is that it was NOT retirement-related because Labor Participation for ...

Early Flows

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

Hearing of hedge fund buyers of 10s versus 5s and hedge funds covering shorts in 10s. Relative value types are eying 5 s versus 2s and 10s. One trader commented on the participation rate and lack of wage gains and the lack of high paying jobs in the gains and thought ...

Labor Day Curvology

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

Some violent shifts in the yield curve post the labor report with belly versus the back end making new lows. So 5s 10s is now 92.6 and was 96.1 prior to report. The 5 year has gotten crushed versus the bond and rests at 168.4 versus 175.5 prior to the ...

Wage gains stagnant and Manufacturing hours worked decline

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

Via BLS: The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours in April. The manufacturing workweek decreased by 0.2 hour in April to 40.8 hours, and factory overtime was unchanged at 3.5 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls ...

Participation rate drops

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

From the BLS report: The civilian labor force dropped by 806,000 in April, following an increase of 503,000 in March. The labor force participation rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 62.8 pe rcent in April. The participation rate has shown no clear trend in recent months and curre ntly is the same as it was this past October. ...

Tensions Increasing in Ukraine

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

The Ukraine Government in an exercise of its sovereignty launched a military operation to dislodge pro Russian separatists in the city of Slovyansk. Russia responded with a bellicose statement that the Ukraine attack had destroyed any chance of a negotiated settlement.

Ten Year Guideposts

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

I am not a technician nor do I pretend to be but the 200 day moving average on the 10 year note is 2.701 and the low print recently was 2.568 on March 03. Thanks to Bloomberg for that info.

FX

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

 Via Mark Chandler of Brown Brothers: Euro-area manufacturing PMI inched higher in April to 53.4 from 53.3.  German PMI rose in line with expectations to 54.1, but France's fell to 51.2 from 52.1 in March but still rose from the 50.9 flash. The decline in French PMI was attributed to slower ...