Archive for May, 2014

History Repeating

Sunday, May 4th, 2014

This is from the those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it department. Via the WSJ: Credit Markets Borrowing Cash to Buy Complex Assets Is In Vogue Again Banks Are Marketing Leveraged CLOs Ahead of Rules That Limit Holdings By Katy Burne connect May 4, 2014 7:48 p.m. ET Banks again are doling out money ...

Whiff of Wage Inflation?

Sunday, May 4th, 2014

Via the WSJ: Wage Pressure Begins to Build Diverse Companies Projecting Increases; Trend Isn't Yet Widespread By Theo Francis connect May 4, 2014 7:42 p.m. ET The improving U.S. jobs market has been marred by stubbornly slow growth in wages, but recent results from companies show the outlook for some workers may be brightening. A wide range of ...

Bandwagon Leaving Station

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

The Hilary Clinton bandwagon is rolling along and we are 2 1/2 years away from November 2016 when thankfully the incumbent will fade into oblivion. Ms Clinton has yet to declare her intentions but the mighty and powerful are lining up to endorse here. Tomorrow Senator Kaine of Virginia and ...

Q1 GDP Tracking Negative Now

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

The Calculated Risk blog has posted a Merrill Lynch research piece which posits that inventory data and construction data received after release of the Q1 GDP report would now show Q1 GDP at -0.4. Merrill Lynch has revised higher its forecast of Q2 GDP to 3.6 from 3.2

Credit Risk and Event Risk and Inflation

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

Via Bank Of America Merrill Lynch Research The sum of two risks is zero. Last Friday we went strategically neutral on high grade, citing little upside and significant uncertainties - including most importantly interest rate and geopolitical risks. We remain very comfortable with that move. However, in an interesting development today ...

Another Possible Source of Long Duration Demand?

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

Over the past several months I have posted here on the robust demand for long dated assets by pension funds and insurance. One motivation for that demand was the equity market rally of 2013 which rescued many funds from under funded positions and placed them on firmer financial funding as ...

Dealer Flows

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

Via RBS Securities: Our Treasury flows were fast money selling of TY futures, real money 2-way in 10’s, fast money selling of 2’s, and real money 2-way in 5’s. In swaps, we had fast money paying 2y1y, fast money receiving 20yr rate 10yrs forward, and selling of 5yr and 10yr spreads. ...

Treasury market Update

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

The Treasury market has been quite volatile and the bid in the long end is voracious. The belly received a battering initially and the levels I reported earlier (5s 10s at 92 and 5s 30s at 168) hold as the days narrows. However, there has been ongoing buying of the ...

On the labor Report and the Yield Curve

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

Via Richard Gilhooly of TD Securities The market is clawing its way out of a hole, created by the 8.30am injection of volatility via Payrolls at 288k and +36k of revisions and also by the fact that yields dropped 10bp in the past two days, erasing the short base. We had ...

Miscellany

Friday, May 2nd, 2014

One dealer reporting that money managers and central banks have turned buyers of the belly and that has stabilized the market. In my conversations I find two camps both entrenched in their view. One holds that this number signals that the Q1 GDP number was indeed backward looking and weather related ...