Archive for April, 2014

On the Shape of the Yield Curve

Thursday, April 24th, 2014

I have been away from acrossthecurve.com's sprawling and opulent headquarters today and this is my first chance to check markets and this blog. I just read the end of day piece by Richard Gilhooly at TD Securities (who is a friend and former colleague). He writes a brilliant piece on ...

Primary Dealer List Circa 1981

Thursday, April 24th, 2014

A fully paid up subscriber forwarded this and it is a trip down memory lane and my early days in the bond business. These were the Primary Dealers in 1981 when it was the financial market equivalent of OPEC in its glory years. Bank of America Bankers Trust A.G. Becker Briggs, Schaedle Carroll McEntee & ...

7 Year Auction Preview

Thursday, April 24th, 2014

Via CRT Capital an auction preview: 7-year auctions have recently met strong receptions with all three of the most recent auctions stopping-through for an average of 0.4 bp. • Indirect bidding has been increasing at 7s, taking 43% at the last four auctions vs. 40% at the prior four.  Direct bidding has ...

Swaps

Thursday, April 24th, 2014

Swaps are locked in a very boring range as they have been for the last two weeks. Spreads are probably 1/4 basis point wider today. One trader noted that with the incorporation of the rolls 5s and 7s optically look very tight (5s at 7 3/4 and 7s at 5 ...

Corporate Bonds

Thursday, April 24th, 2014

Corporate bond spreads are unchanged to a tad firmer as they have been most of this week. My favorite source in this sector reports that there is no backing off and that there is a huge pool of money seeking safe sanctuary in the 3year to 10 year sector. He ...

MBS

Thursday, April 24th, 2014

Mortgages opening tighter to Treasuries with 30s 1 to 2 ticks better and 15 2 ticks better. One trader noted slightly lower prices and slightly steeper curve as catalyst for some modest buying.

Range Trading

Thursday, April 24th, 2014

The folks at Bloomberg news publish a wonderful synopsis every morning of the market in a l piece entitled US RATES/CREDIT DAYBOOK. They have included a very interesting factoid on the trading range in 10 year notes. The authors, James Holloway and Elizabeth Stanton, note that the 25 basis point ...

Seven Year Note When 2s and 5s Tails

Thursday, April 24th, 2014

David Ader of CRT Capital has an interesting data point which is relevant to the auction today. He notes that since the reincarnation of the 7 year note in 2009 there have been 11 occasions when the 2s and 5s each tailed and that led to a tail 73 percent ...

April 24 2014 Opening

Thursday, April 24th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are virtually unchanged from levels I recorded at 830PM last evening (in  fact the yield on the 5 year note is the same). Equity markets are mixed with the Nikkei notably lower but other markets higher. In Europe a stronger than expected IFO number has ...

FX

Thursday, April 24th, 2014

Mark Chandler of Brown Brothers on FX markets : Signals from the ECB have not changed:  they are prepared to do more, but there is no strong sense of urgencythat would encourage a view that action will take place in May.  Draghi and Knott have already spoken today and Constancio is ...