Archive for April, 2014

Some Overnight Draghi Headlines

Friday, April 11th, 2014

*ECB DRAGHI: DON'T EXCLUDE FURTHER MONETARY POLICY EASING *DRAGHI: HICP TO REACH LEVELS CLOSER TO 2% TOWARDS END OF 2016 *DRAGHI: CLOSELY FOLLOWING DEVELOPMENTS ON MONEY MARKETS *DRAGHI: ECB UNANIMOUS ON USING NON-STAND TOOLS VS LOW INFL. *DRAGHI: RECENT SURVEY DATA SHOW EMU ECON RECOVERY CONTINUING *DRAGHI: UP/DOWNSIDE INFL RISKS LIMITED, BALANCED IN MID TERM *DRAGHI: ...

Credit Spreads and Equity Markets and Growth Angst

Thursday, April 10th, 2014

Via Merrill Lynch Research: The growth anxiety sell-off. Another day of big declines in stocks and moderate spread widening in credit. Since the local high for the S&P 500 on April 2nd, the index is off about 3%. However, equity market losses over the same week-and-a-day period range from more than ...

Regulators Want to Siphon Money From Bonus Pools

Thursday, April 10th, 2014

This is another story on the very difficult regulatory environment confronting investments banks. Regulators are examining if large customers receive special treatment or if bid offer spreads are too wide. I take the view that if we have two consenting adults on a telephone and one of them hits a ...

Corporate Bonds

Thursday, April 10th, 2014

Corporate bonds initially held the very firm tightening tone which has dominated trading recently. Last week when the NASDAQ initially cratered corporates softened a tad but insignificantly. Today they opened firm but have retreated over the last several hours. So the IG 22 is 2 1/2 basis points off its ...

Miscellany

Thursday, April 10th, 2014

I have heard of some active flows in the short end, 0 to 5 years in which longer term holders are better sellers. In swaps I have heard of fast money receiving in the belly. Swap spreads are mixed with 2s 3/8 basis point wider and 5s 1 basis point ...

Bond Auction Results

Thursday, April 10th, 2014

Via CRT Capital: *** The auction was uneventful with an on-the-screws stop and non-dealer bidding at 61.2% vs. 59.1% norm *** * 30-year auction stops at 3.525% vs. a 3.525% 1-pm bid WI. * Dealers were awarded 38.8% vs. 41% average of last four 30-year Reopenings. * Indirects get 43.3% vs. 43% norm for ...

Thirty Year Auction Addendum

Thursday, April 10th, 2014

I left out one important point regarding the Long Bond. The bond trader I cited in my last note mentioned this as did Richard Gilhooly in his auction write up. If the bond trades below 3.50 percent there is a strong probability that price action would trigger stop loss buying ...

Thirty Year Bond Auction

Thursday, April 10th, 2014

In fifty four short minutes the Unites States Treasury will regurgitate $13 billion Long Bonds at auction. I think the auction will be well received because of its cheapness on the curve and because of the kick from the bio tech led swoon in equities. The 5s 30s spread is ...

Five Year Note Mimics Lazarus

Thursday, April 10th, 2014

If I may try a Biblical analogy you might recall that in the New Testament Jesus raises Lazarus from the dead. Yellen has performed a similar miracle as the 5 year note is rolling away the stone and walking from the tomb in which the Fed had placed it. The ...

MBS

Thursday, April 10th, 2014

Mortgages continue to tighten and are now 3 to 3+ tighter in 30s and 3 ticks tighter in 15s . There had been some real money sellers but those folks have retired from the fray. Away from that flow there are buyers and the street,according to one dealer, is having ...