Archive for April, 2014

WSJ Article on Yellen Speech

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Victoria McGrane usually plays second fiddle to the illustrious Jon Hilsenrath. Today she is the lead character in the play and writes on the Yellen speech. This story is circulating in the market currently. Via WSJ: Economy Has Improved, but Outlook Remains Uncertain By VICTORIA MCGRANE And BEN LEUBSDORF NEW YORK—Three "big questions," including ...

Yellen Speech

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

There is nothing new in the Yellen speech. She does cite all the factors which the Committee will assess when it decides on labor market slack. She avers that some of this is "nuanced" judgement which I think that they can do whatever they wish whenever they feel like. She ...

Federal Reserve Event Risk

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

This is an interesting article by two academics who author a blog called House of Debt. The authors wanted to learn who bears "Federal Reserve Risk". They studied which instruments move the most on days when Federal Reserve policy decisions move the markets. They studied June 19 2013 when the ...

Treasury Market

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

The Treasury market has sagged but most of that sag was in the overseas session and the market right now is virtually unchanged from where I market it at 543AM this morning. Traders cite the impending speech by Ms Yellen as a factor for the lack of activity. One trader ...

Swap Spreads

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Swap spreads are wider today. I have heard of isolated hedging (paying) by end users. The one trader with whom I spoke stressed the "isolated" word and believed that it was not the beginning of some thematic move. He also noted that the notional amounts involved were small. Two year spreads ...

Corporate Bond Spreads

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Corporate bond spreads are unchanged to a basis point tighter this morning. Activity in the secondary is light. Yesterday Walmart priced a 3 year and a 10 year and a 30 year. The pricing and subsequent trading in the secondary market is reflective of a market that is not pricing the ...

Corporate Bond List Thus Far

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Not exactly household names but here is the list courtesy of the good folks at Bloomberg: Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten B'Mark Aaa/AA+  7 yr spread set ms+41 Office Cherifien de Phosphate/ OCP SA TBD na/BBB-    10 yr 144A Reg S guidsance 5.875% area Reliance Standard Life Global Funding II 300mm A2/A+  5 yr FA Backed ...

Housing Starts

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Via TDSecurities: Today at 8:53 AM The pace of new residential construction rose marginally in March, posting a modest 2.8% m/m bounce to 946K, following the upwardly revised gain to 920K (previously reported as 907K) the month before. The improvement, however, fell well short of the market consensus for a more meaningful ...

IP and Cap Ute

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Via Pierpont Securities: Industrial production was much stronger than expected.  The March gain of 0.7% easily outpaced forecasts (especially mine) and there was a massive upward revision to the February figure, from +0.6% to +1.2%.  Thus, notwithstanding the weather, industrial production is 1.7% higher in March than in December.  Given the ...

Overnight Flows

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Via CRT Capital: OVERNIGHT FLOWS:  Treasuries were under pressure overnight because Chinese data was not as weak as feared and the UK showed signs of continued improvements in labor market conditions.  Overnight volumes were firm with cash trading at 100% of the 10-day moving-average, while TY came in at 11% of ...