Treasury 10 Year vs Bund 10 Year
Monday, March 24th, 2014The aforementioned spread is out around 115 basis points and that is close to a multi year wide which was a buying opportunity a few weeks ago.
Archive for March, 2014
The aforementioned spread is out around 115 basis points and that is close to a multi year wide which was a buying opportunity a few weeks ago.
Swaps
Monday, March 24th, 2014Swap spreads are mixed as of this writing. The 2 year spread is unchanged and 5s are in 1/4 to 1/2. In the 10 year sector spreads are unchanged and bonds spreads are 3/4 basis point wider. The swap trader with whom I spoke said that he had seen more ...
Treasury Market Update
Monday, March 24th, 2014The yield curve flattening continues and spreads along the curve are at their narrowest levels since the dark days of 2009. I spoke with a portfolio manager inquiring regarding the logic of today's trade. He suggested that some of it was just momentum as we have breached significant long term ...
Weak Nasdaq
Monday, March 24th, 2014Via Bloomberg: Record U.S. Small-Caps Rally Sends Valuation 26% Above 1990s (2) 2014-03-24 13:57:08.715 GMT (Updates with today’s trading in fifth paragraph.) By Lu Wang March 24 (Bloomberg) -- In one corner of the U.S. equity market, investor enthusiasm is exceeding the frenzy of the Internet bubble. Small-cap shares tracked by the Russell 2000 Index have rallied for seven ...
Corporate Bonds
Monday, March 24th, 2014In the previous week's spate of corporate issuance much of the newly priced paper languished and leaked wider. That as not the case following last week's issuance in which virtually everything trades rich to the pricing spread. My favorite is the 3 year Mobil which priced at +15 as now ...
Yield Curve Flattening
Monday, March 24th, 2014One fully paid up subscriber see near term resistance on 5s 30s at 186. It was trading at 186.5 just a few minutes ago. He suggests that a breach of 186 would then make 163 a target.He opines that until the FOMC upended the natural order with the various iterations ...
Overnight Flows
Monday, March 24th, 2014Some overnight flow information: Asian bank buyers of 5s. Asian bank buyers of MBS. Asian central bank buyers of 3s. European real money buying 10s.Middle Eastern based buyers off the run 5s. Hedge fund sellers of 5s. That was an aggregation of several sources. And this is the usual excerpt from CRT CAPITAL: OVERNIGHT FLOWS: Treasuries were under ...
March 24 2014 Opening
Monday, March 24th, 2014Prices of Treasury coupon securities have suffered modest losses in overseas trading with the belly of the curve taking the greatest pain. The yield curve continues on its flattening course and some spreads have made new cycle lows. The yield on the benchmark 5 year note has increased 3.8 basis ...
Low Funds Rate Forever?
Monday, March 24th, 2014I posted last night a piece entitled "Sunday Evening Hilsenrath" in which he opined on why the projections of FOMC members forecast a 2 percent funds rate in 2016. I noted in that post and in other ruminations that the market anticipates a terminal funds rate around 4 percent. The ...
Nate Silver on the Midterm Election
Sunday, March 23rd, 2014Nate Silver of ESPN (sounds funny to write that) has produced his first forecast (at his new ESPN gig) for the November 2014 election and at this juncture he makes the GOP a small favorite to capture control of the Senate in the November balloting. If you are not familiar ...