Archive for March, 2014

CRT Capital on Five Year Auction

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

Via CRT Capital: 5s have recently seen weak receptions with all but two of the last nine auctions tailing for an average of 0.72 bp.  A longer history shows 5s tail 67% of the time. • Foreign buying has increased recently, taking 13% at the last four auctions vs. 12% at the ...

Midweek and Midmorning Miscellany

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

I receive regular notes from an FX salesman and in a recent note he mentioned that the Turkish Lira is on fire. It is trading at 2.1938 currently after trading at nearly 2.22 at 600AM this morning. Most of the month it has traded between 2.20 and 2.25 but it ...

Five Year Note Auction Thoughts

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

The Treasury will auction $32 billion 5 year notes today. The issue has traded between 1.44 and 1.78 over the last twenty trading sessions so with the WI flirting with 1.75 the issue is at the back end of that range. Now there are myriad reasons why the issue is ...

Corporate Issues Today

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: My guess is $5.3b for the day's IG deals. Yours ?? $tbd  Sumitomo Mitsui Fin Grp (SUMIBK)  Baa2/BBB+ 144a/Reg-S sub Tier 2  10Y  Barc/C/GS/SMBC IPT +185 area $tbd  MasterCard (MA) A2/A    BAML/C/GS $    5Y    IPT +50-55 $  10Y    IPT +85-90 #$1b  Export Development Canada (EDC) Aaa/AAA Global 3Y    MS -3  BAML/BNP/HSBC/Scotia $800m  Canadian ...

MBS

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

Mortgages have opened a tad better versus Treasuries. Selling of MBS by fast money types dominated activity yesterday and dealers report those folks are reversing those trades this morning. Separately, banks favor owning 10 year and 20 year paper.

Durable Goods: Weakness Beyond the Headline

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

Via TDSecurities: Headline durable goods orders rose at a very brisk 2.2% m/m pace in February, bettering the market expectation for a more modest 0.8% m/m advance. The rise in orders was on account of the 6.9% m/m gain in transportation orders, with the ex-transportation measure rising at a far more ...

Corporate Bonds

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

Corporate bond spreads are opening unchanged to a basis point better today in most sectors. Issuance has subsided into quarter end and will regain some momentum when the calendar announces the cruelest month, April. One salesman with whom I regularly converse was noting what he decried as the dysfunction of ...

Saint Louis Federal Reserve Data Mining Without A License

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

The Saint Louis Federal Reserve maintains one of the premier economic data bases on the planet. However, it is engaged in a dispute with the owners of that information and consequently that information will no longer be included at the regional bank's data base. S and P Dow Jones Indices which ...

SocGen on the Euro and Yen

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

Via Kit Juckes of SocGen: EUR/USD is driven principally by expectations of monetary policy in the US and Euro area over the next few years, and risk aversion. My silly little models capture these quite well by looking at 2-year swap rate differentials for the former, and the 3-year Spanish/German bond ...

March 26 2014 Opening

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities posted mixed results  in a quiet overnight session which for the most part witnessed an abundance of risk on sentiment. Most Asia equity markets posted gains with the Nikkei up 0.37 percent and the Hang Seng gaining 0.72 percent. The Shanghai Index bucked the trend ...