Long in the Tooth Bull Market
Thursday, March 27th, 2014Even a paper as Middle America as USA today thinks the equity market is stretched.
Archive for March, 2014
Even a paper as Middle America as USA today thinks the equity market is stretched.
Afternoon Miscellany
Thursday, March 27th, 2014Swap spreads finished marginally wider out to 5 year and unchanged in 7s and 10s. Thirty Year spreads were 1/4 basis point tighter. The swap dealer who wrote the note from which I derive this also noted (as had a previous writer) that there was chunky selling of long bonds ...
Treasury Update
Thursday, March 27th, 2014One dealer reporting to me that real money clients, both domestic and international, have sold some bonds over the last hour or so. He thinks that 10s 30s will have a tough time locally breaching 83 (currently about 83.7).
MBS
Thursday, March 27th, 2014MBS were 1+ tighter earlier in the day but have hit a wall and are now 1+ wider to Treasuries. Maybe someone is selling to make room for 7 year notes.
Seven Year Note Musings
Thursday, March 27th, 2014The Treasury will complete the auction process for the week with an auction of 7 year notes in a little more than one hour from now. I think this one cries out to be bought too and will probably go quite well. On an outright basis it is trading in ...
Treasury Market Musings
Thursday, March 27th, 2014The Treasury yield curve continues its flattening exercise again today. The 5s 30s spread is 181.3 basis points and it did trade below 180 briefly earlier today. For some perspective that spread was 207 last Wednesday moments before the FOMC spoke. I have spoken to several market participants on the ...
CRT 7 Year Note Cheat Sheet
Thursday, March 27th, 2014Via CRT Capital: Today at 11:17 AM • 7-year auctions have recently met soft receptions with only two stop-throughs since June and those were January’s modest 0.2 bp and February’s 0.3 bp. Tails have averaged 0.9 bp and we saw on-the-screws stops in July and October. • Indirect bidding has been decreasing at ...
FTN Financial on Q4 GDP
Thursday, March 27th, 2014This is an interesting analysis as it credits (or blames ) some of the upward revision in Q4 GDP to the Affordable Care Act (aka ObamaCare). The FTN economists cite increased consumer spending on healthcare and financial services which includes insurance. If you are a regular reader you know I am ...
Mortgages
Thursday, March 27th, 2014Mortgages opened marginally tighter to Treasuries this morning. In the 30 year sector 4s through 5s are the best performers and those coupons are outpacing Treasuries by 1+ ticks. In the 15 year sector the best coupons are 3s and 3.5 and they are better by about 1+ ticks too. ...
Overnight Flows via CRT Capital
Thursday, March 27th, 2014Via CRT Capital: OVERNIGHT FLOWS: Treasuries were little changed overnight as equities foound modest support. Overnight volumes were light with cash trading at 91% of the 10-day moving-average, while TY came in at 84% of norms. 10s were the most active issue, taking a 35% marketshare, while 5s took 31% and ...