Archive for March, 2014
Monday, March 3rd, 2014
One fully paid up subscriber noted that the Russians had intervened in the market to stabilize the Euro by selling dollars and buying Euros with informed guesses in the market that they sold in the vicinity of $10 billion. This same fully paid up subscriber states that Russia maintains a ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Monday Morning Miscellany
Monday, March 3rd, 2014
This is an excellent piece on contagion risks which could percolate out of Ukraine. The risks in Ukraine are quite manageable but the concern is that there could be ripple effect elsewhere in EM space.
Via SocGen research:
COULD UKRAINE TRIGGER A FULL BLOWN EM CRISIS? CONCENTRATED OWNERSHIP IS MAIN RISK At ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on SocGen on Ukraine and Contagion Risk
Monday, March 3rd, 2014
Corporate bonds opening wider in response to the risk aversion trade. My corporate bond source says that bank and finance paper is 3 basis points to 4 basis points wider and TMT paper is 2 basis points to 3 basis points wider. In addition the IG 21 is 2 basis ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Corporate Bond Opening
Monday, March 3rd, 2014
Some comments from Mark Chandler at Brown Brothers on the impact of the Ukraine crisis on Germany:
After Ukraine, Germany may have the most to lose from Russian actions. Its energy program and efforts to de-nuclearize seems to force greater reliance on Russian energy. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan spurred an ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Ukraine and Russia and Germany
Monday, March 3rd, 2014
Via David Ader at CRT:
OVERNIGHT FLOWS: Treasuries were well bid on the Ukraine-inspired flight-to-quality flows and global equities were under pressure. Overnight volumes were understandably strong with cash trading at 181% of the 10-day moving-average, while TY came in at 173% of norms. 5s were by far the most active ...
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Monday, March 3rd, 2014
I wrote a little while ago that I would observe the energy markets to see if Russia would use energy as a political weapon. Before I wrote that Reuters reported that Gazprom the Russian gas company has threatened to raise prices to the Ukraine.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Energy and Politics
Monday, March 3rd, 2014
Prices of Treasury coupon securities have surged and the benchmark 10 year note attained a new cycle low as the crisis over the Russian intervention in the Ukraine has precipitated a genuine risk aversion and flight to quality. The yield on the benchmark 10 year note rests at 2.612 and ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on March 03 2014 Opening
Sunday, March 2nd, 2014
My final employer prior to my retirement and extraction from the denominator in the calculation of the participation rate was a Canadian bank with dominion in Toronto. So when ever I see a Canada story I still take notice.
It seems that the folks at PIMCO expect the housing bubble north ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on From the Oh Canada Department
Sunday, March 2nd, 2014
The equity market (ex the Ukraine motivated sell off this evening) continues to print new highs. But Alas the FT wants to take away the punch bowl and truncate the glee by pointing out that margin debt at the NYSE is at some rather frothy levels and in the past ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Investors Not Heeding Polonius’ Advice to Laertes
Sunday, March 2nd, 2014
The benchmark 10 year note is trading at 2.596. It closed around 2.65 and at the current level it is 4 basis points through the 200 day moving average at 2.636. The 5s 10s curve is at 114 basis point which is a tad flatter than the 214.4 which prevailed ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Market Update