Archive for March, 2014

Post Labor Spread Market Musings

Friday, March 7th, 2014

In early trading  post the labor data the Treasury market dominates. So corporate bond spreads and swap spreads are little changed. Swap spreads have been directional lately and I would expect that trend to continue in the near term. If we get a huge sell off and return to the ...

Technical Treasury Stuff

Friday, March 7th, 2014

One fully paid up subscriber who is also former colleague notes that the 10 year held in just in front of the 2.82 levels which is a 50 percent retracement of the move from 3.05 on January 02 down to 2.60 earlier this week. For the Fibonacci students in the ...

Treasury Yield Curve

Friday, March 7th, 2014

Treasury market slaughtered on the labor report. Yield on the 5 year note has jumped about 9 basis points to 1.64 and yield on the 10 year has jumped 8 basis points to 2.81.The belly is distended and swollen at the moment.The 5s 10s 30s butterfly has cheapened 2.5 basis ...

March 07 2014 Opening

Friday, March 7th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are registering small mixed changes in overseas trading.   The focus of traders today is the labor report in the US and that report will dominate trading. In overnight trading the only meaningful data I have observed is the IP report in Germany which registered a ...

CRT Capital Non Farm Payroll Survey

Thursday, March 6th, 2014

I often post excerpts of notes by David Ader of CRT Capital. Each month Ader surveys market participants regarding their view on how they would trade the market in various scenarios following the monthly labor. This month's survey has a decidedly bearish flavor to it as respondents look for higher ...

Late Afternoon Market Musings

Thursday, March 6th, 2014

The Treasury market closed  not with a bang but with a whimper and yields went out pretty close to local highs. The yield curve steepened over the course of the trading session, too, as the Long Bond underperformed its yield curve cousins. For example when I marked levels around 1100AM ...

Race to the Bottom or News From Res Ipsa Loquitur Department

Thursday, March 6th, 2014

The FT has an article on the  boom in issuance of sub prime auto paper. This article reads as if it could have been written in 2005 or 2006. Via FT: Lenders race to join subprime car loan boom By Tracy Alloway in New York Tony Reibold has been selling cars for 35 years. ...

Corporate Bonds

Thursday, March 6th, 2014

There has been a virtual tsunami of corporate issuance today and the two previous days. One fully paid up subscriber who is an aficionado of things corporate reports that in the aforementioned three days total issuance is north of $50 billion. He reports that spreads remain steadfast but that the ...

SocGen on ECB Rate Decision

Thursday, March 6th, 2014

Via SocGen Research: Eco Analysis - ECB on hold, signalling low rates well into 2016 As expectations for the March Governing Council meeting have been building, it was with some disappointment that markets received ECB President Draghi's message of no rate cuts and no halting of the SMP sterilisation. Around 25% of ...

Updated Corporate Bond List for Today

Thursday, March 6th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: unless we get under-the-radar MTN issuance... ==$7.5b/$54.25b/$54.25b/$329.81b= day  week    month  YTD Thursday - March 6 #$3b  General Electric Company (GE) Aa3/AA+ $750m  10Y    +75 $2.25b  30Y  +87.5      BAML/Barc/CS/DB/RBC *$1.75b  Nederlandse Waterschapsbank (NEDWBK) Aaa/AA+    144a/Reg-S  Barc/BNP/Nom 5Y  +29.32 /  MS +29 #$1.5b  CF Industries (CF) Baa2/BBB-    GS/MS $750m    20Y    +152 $750m  30Y    +172 #$500m  ...