Archive for March, 2014

CRT Capital on Overnight Flows

Monday, March 10th, 2014

Via CRT Capital: OVERNIGHT FLOWS:  Treasuries were little changed overnight despite the mix of data released.  Overnight volumes were near the norms with cash trading at 111% of the 10-day moving-average, while TY came in at 86%.  10s were the most active issue, taking a 31% marketshare, while 5s took 29% ...

Hilsenrath on FOMC Exit Strategy

Monday, March 10th, 2014

Hilsenrath with a story on the FOMC considering a new exit strategy employing reverse repo as a policy tool. Via the WSJ: *DJ Hilsenrath: New Approach Would Send Signals About How Fed Will Raise Rates *DJ Hilsenrath: Fed Would Manage the Cost of Money Instead of Supply of Money *DJ Hilsenrath: Fed Considering New ...

This Week in Crimea

Monday, March 10th, 2014

Mark Chandler on sources of increasing tension In Crimea: Last week, we warned that the two main sources of tension that had arisen (Russia's military action in Crimea and the relatively sharp depreciation of the Chinese yuan) were going to stabilize.  This week, investors should brace for a re-escalation of both. ...

March 10 2014 Opening

Monday, March 10th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities had a firm tone and posted small gains early in the overseas trading session as weak economic data from China and Japan dominated trading. In Asia there was a decidedly risk off tone as the Nikkei dropped one percent and the Hang Seng slipped 1.75 ...

Midnight Miscellany

Sunday, March 9th, 2014

The US Treasury market opened well bid in Asia and remains so. Major Asian equity markets all in the red. Trade balance data released in China over the weekend were weak but subject to a variety of distortions but nevertheless caused some angst for investors. GDP in Japan was revised ...

China Corporate Defaults: More to Follow

Sunday, March 9th, 2014

The WSJ is carrying an article on the probability of more defaults similar to the default last week by the small solar energy company Chaori. The article contains a great analogy by an analyst at Sinolink Securities who states " It is just like when you find a dead roach ...

Forward Guidance Contested

Sunday, March 9th, 2014

The FT carries an article in which Bank for International Settlements economists warn of the dangers of forward guidance. The economists believe that the policy can fuel dangerous risk taking behavior and might lead to panics of investors believe the guidance is about to change. The economists believe that central ...

Analyzing the Broader Job market

Sunday, March 9th, 2014

Macroblog is the blog of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and it often posts cogent and insightful analysis of macroeconomic topics. The bank's most recent post is an analysis of the state of the labor market which focuses on the broader U6 measure of unemployment. The article notes the ...

Another Bubble Story

Saturday, March 8th, 2014

Something called Coupons.com went public with an IPO which raised $168 million. The shares surged post the offering and were up as much as 88 percent from the offering price which attached a $2.2 billion market cap to this firm which lost money last year and had sales of $168 ...

Stolen Passports

Saturday, March 8th, 2014

News reports are circulating that two passengers aboard the missing and I presume downed Malaysian airliner were traveling with stolen passports. That would be an ominous development in an already sad and tragic story.