Archive for February, 2014

Tilting at Windmills

Monday, February 24th, 2014

This is an off beat story from the Washington Post. It seems that a Silicon Valley entrepreneur has the idea that California is ungovernable in its present form and he wants to take the one mega state and split it into six states. As the article suggests that would give ...

Upcoming Economic Data

Monday, February 24th, 2014

Action Economics is a private forecasting and consulting firm which I read and recommend. Here is a piece from that firm with thoughts on upcoming economic data in the US. Via Action Economics: The next couple of weeks will be crowded with important data releases. And though they will continue to be ...

February 24 2014 Opening

Monday, February 24th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are registering very small gains when viewed against closing levels in New York late Friday. There does not appear to me to be a real theme in the overnight trading session. I had believed that developments in the Ukraine would stir the pot and lead ...

Russian Backlash

Sunday, February 23rd, 2014

Attached is a cut and paste of an FT piece which speaks of the possibility of a Russian backlash against Ukraine. The author posits that a successful conversion to democracy in Ukraine will stoke the fire of freedom in Russia. That is plainly not a desired outcome for Mr Putin. Via ...

Murky Future for Ukraine

Saturday, February 22nd, 2014

I think that the weekend developments in the Ukraine may have a significant impact on trading when markets open on Sunday evening. The Russian ruble was trading at very weak levels on Friday and could come under more pressure when active trading begins again on Sunday evening. Emerging market currencies ...

Constitutional Law in Ukraine

Saturday, February 22nd, 2014

Stratfor has an analytical piece on the Ukraine constitution (a topic upon which I had not previously cogitated) which posits that the Parliament in that divided country has exceeded the limits of that nation's Constitution. The situation there is fluid and evolving and this is a worthy read for some ...

Frothy Market as Joe Q Public Climbs Back In

Saturday, February 22nd, 2014

The Wall Street Journal has a long article today on the return of Joe Q Public to the equity markets and day trading. Trading volumes are up at brokers  such as Schwab and TDAmeritrade who cater to small traders. There are some great anecdotes in the article such as the ...

Treasury Market Update

Friday, February 21st, 2014

The Treasury market is about a basis point cheaper than when I wrote early this morning. The 5 year note is suffering the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in the down trade. For example, 5s 10s was 121.5 when I wrote earlier and it is 120.8 currently. Similarly, 5s ...

More on Light Volume Overnight

Friday, February 21st, 2014

This is via William O Donnell at RBS Securities and he speaks to the light volume over night, too. Our overnight Treasury flows were very light with central bank buyers of 2's and 3's helping the front end outperform the rest of the curve. Last night's inter-dealer Treasury volume reversed lower ...

Overnight Activity

Friday, February 21st, 2014

Via Davis Ader CRT Capital: OVERNIGHT FLOWS:  Treasuries were little changed overnight as the incoming data proved inadequate to prompt more meaningful price action.  Overnight volumes were light with cash trading at 79% of the 10-day moving-average, while TY came in at 75% of norms.  5s were the most active issue, ...