Archive for February, 2014

Puerto Rico Bonds Slip to Basura

Tuesday, February 4th, 2014

I am not a maven of munis but S and P has declared them to be junk. Given all the conversation about the finances of that island I would guess as an outsider that this was not unexpected. S and P cut the rating to BB+ stripping the Commonwealth of ...

Treasury Market Update

Tuesday, February 4th, 2014

The Treasury market is sagging significantly this afternoon and erasing may of the gains attained yesterday. There are several reasons for the volte face. The equitymarket has stabilized and with that some of the fear coursing through the market yesterday has faded. In addition, and maybe a more fundamental point, ...

CBO and ACA

Tuesday, February 4th, 2014

I decided to go acronymic on the title. CBO is the Congressional Budget Office and they released an updated analysis of the Affordable Care Act (aka ObamaCare). It is very wonkish stuff but the most interesting unintended consequence according to the CBO is that it will reduce employment by 2 ...

Corporate Bonds

Tuesday, February 4th, 2014

I do not believe that I wrote about corporates yesterday. Bank and finance paper was 3 basis points to 5 basis points wider. TMT paper leaked 2 basis points to 3 basis points wider and industrial name paper was a basis point to 2 basis points wider. The same consolidation which ...

Swap Spreads

Tuesday, February 4th, 2014

Swap spreads in the words of one former colleague  are violently unchanged this morning. That trader thinks that participants are licking their wounds and deferring decisions until the labor report on Friday.He had not observed any noteworthy flows and I heard the same from a salesman at another shop. So ...

Treasury Market Update

Tuesday, February 4th, 2014

The retreat in Treasury prices which began overnight continues as I compose this electronic missive.When I wrote early this morning the 10 year yielded 2.60. It resides now just above 2.62. The curve is a tad flatter with 5s 30s now 210.7 versus 211 at 600AM.  The adjustment has also ...

Overnight Client Flows

Tuesday, February 4th, 2014

Volume was 116% of 10 day moving average. Dealers reported real money in UK buying the 5 year sector and central bank bill sellers. Central banks sold 5 year  notes and other real money clients nibbled on the buy side from 5s through 30s. Separately, banks paid 10 year swap ...

Weekly JPM Survey

Tuesday, February 4th, 2014

This is rather instructive as longs plummeted and shorts jumped and that is what the price action is signaling. I talk to nobody who says "Where do I buy this"? Via Bloomberg: RATES: Greater Shorts Are the Focus of Latest JPM Survey 2014-02-04 12:15:36.712 GMT By Robert Elson Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The JPMorgan Treasury ...

G 20 Inflation Slowed In December

Tuesday, February 4th, 2014

I posted a piece last night on corporations with a dearth of pricing power. This is another piece by the WSJ and delineates falling inflation in G 20 countries in December. Via WSJ: G-20 Inflation Rate Fell in December OECD Data Fuel Concerns That Too Little Inflation Could Threaten Recovery By Paul Hannon Updated Feb. 4, ...

February 04 2014 Opening

Tuesday, February 4th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have registered modest losses in overnight trading. Global equity markets continue the recent rout with Japan down 4 percent and the Hang Seng shedding nearly 3 percent. In Australia equities declined 1.75 percent. The decline in the Nikkei placed it a whisker above 14K. Kit ...