Archive for February, 2014
Tuesday, February 11th, 2014
The belly of the Treasury curve continues to underperform as participants take umbrage at Ms Yellen's refusal to alter the tapering process undertaken by her predecessor. I think there is some disconsolation that she offered no solace or succor for those who expect that the FOMC will manipulate the markets ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Market Update
Tuesday, February 11th, 2014
Corporate bond spreads are firm this morning with bank and finance and TMT paper better by one basis points to two basis points. Industrials are for the most part unchanged with little trading. My favorite source on this sector reports that buyers emerged late yesterday and firmed up the tone ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Corporates
Tuesday, February 11th, 2014
Swap spreads are not moving much. Three year spreads are 1/2 basis point tighter and the rest of the swap stack is either side of unchanged. Black box model types have paid before and post the testimony and are positioned for wider spreads.
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Tuesday, February 11th, 2014
The bond market has sold off post release of Ms Yellen's prepared text. I do not think that she broke much new ground and think most of the movement is in reaction to the upcoming supply beginning with 3 year note later today. Street will tap on this until buyers ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Market Moves
Tuesday, February 11th, 2014
Here is link to the entire presentation by Ms Yellen.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Yellen Testimony
Tuesday, February 11th, 2014
Ms Yellen thinks that some of the factors contributing to low inflation are transitory such as low oil prices and low import prices.
Via Janet Yellen:
Inflation remained low as the economy picked up strength, with both the headline and core personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price indexes rising only about 1 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Yellen on Inflation
Tuesday, February 11th, 2014
Just reading through the testimony. This looks pretty dovish to me. Labor recovery far from complete. Rate well above levels consistent with maximum employment. She also notes there are too many long term unemployed and too many seeking part time work.
Via Janet Yellen:
The unemployment rate has fallen nearly a percentage ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Some Dovish Stuff
Tuesday, February 11th, 2014
David Ader at CRT in his morning note makes an interesting point about this week's $70 billion of refunding supply. It is not what it appears to be on the surface as it does not raise very much new money. I would add to his analysis that the Treasury also ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Mitigating Factor for Treasury Supply
Tuesday, February 11th, 2014
Via my friends at Bloomberg:
Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The JPMorgan Treasury Client Survey
for the week ended Jan 10 vs week ended Jan 3.
* Longs at 15 vs 11
* Neutrals 59 vs 64
* Shorts 26 vs 25
* Net longs -11 vs -14
* "The all clients survey shows the highest percentage of
outright ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments »
Tuesday, February 11th, 2014
Another icon passes on.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Shirley Temple Dies