Archive for February, 2014

Swap Spreads

Wednesday, February 12th, 2014

Swap spreads are marginally tighter today. Ms Yellen affirmed her belief in tapering yesterday and that will mean more Treasuries coursing through dealer hands (over time) and that would tend to narrow spreads. That has led to some receiving interest. There is also some receiving based on belief that sloppy ...

Ten Year Auction Today

Wednesday, February 12th, 2014

The US Treasury will offer the world an opportunity to buy $24 billion brand new 10 year notes at 100PM this afternoon. I think that the issue is cheap on the curve and will attract substantial demand from traders and end users alike. On an absolute basis the issue has ...

Corporates Thus Far

Wednesday, February 12th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: Rentenbank 1 bln AAA/Aaa  5 yr Global launched ms+11 IBRD B'Mark AAA/Aaa    2 yr Global spread set ms -1 bp Kommunalbanken 300mm Aaa/AAA  Tap 2/2018  144A reg S spread set 3ml+15 Republic of Turkey B'Mark Baa3/BBB-  31 yr ipt 6.75%-6.875% Barclays Bank PLC B'Mark A2/A  5 yr  sr bank notes ipt +110 area HCP 300mm Baa1/BBB+    10 ...

Turkey Bond

Wednesday, February 12th, 2014

Markets are volatile and fickle. That is the nature of markets and that volatility is essential for those who want to earn a living trading. Here is an extreme example of fickleness. Turkey will sell a 31 year bond today in US dollars. It was just a little more than ...

Negative Deposit Rate in Europe?

Wednesday, February 12th, 2014

This story was out maybe thirty minutes ago: Via Bloomberg; By Jeevan Jyothyprakash Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- ECB’s Coeure says bank is considering negative depo rate ‘very seriously’, Reuters reports from summit. * “But you should not expect too much of it,” ECB’s Coeure says * Don’t see deflation in euro-zone, see inflation slowly rising back to 2% * NOTE: ...

China Trade Data

Wednesday, February 12th, 2014

In my opening note a few minutes ago I related that some had doubts about the veracity of the China trade data. Here is an excerpt from the morning note of Mark Chandler at Brown Brothers which touches on that topic: Via Mark Chandler: China reported data that seemed, well, over the ...

February 12 2014 Opening

Wednesday, February 12th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have sagged in overnight trading as a risk on appetite weighs on bond prices. In China trade numbers were quite a bit better than expected at +31.9 billion with both imports and exports surging. I have read one website which focuses on FX that questioned ...

New Primary Dealer

Tuesday, February 11th, 2014

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York added my former employer TDSecurities to the list of primary dealers today. Congratulations to all the good people at TDSecurities with whom I worked for nearly four years for their success and for the hard work which made it possible.

Deja Vu All Over Again?

Tuesday, February 11th, 2014

I have not seen one of these charts in a long time but it is a graphical representation of the price action in the equity market in the 1920s overlayed on price action here. The graphs are eerily similar. What is different is that the components of the DJIA in ...

Three Year Note Auction

Tuesday, February 11th, 2014

The Treasury will auction $30 billion 3 year notes at 100PM New York time which is the only time. The outstanding issue trades around .68 basis points and with the roll that puts the new one close to the 50 day moving average at 72 basis points. One trader friend ...