Archive for February, 2014

B of A on Default Risk and China Trusts

Wednesday, February 19th, 2014

B of A research published an interesting piece on default risk and trusts in China. The analysts at B of A expect defaults in May and anticipate a rocky Q2. The markets aint prepared for that!. Via Merrill Lynch: China Investment Strategy: The coming trust defaults. Apr-July, the next vulnerable period. We ...

Aging Boomers and the Participation Rate

Wednesday, February 19th, 2014

Attached is an article from the FT which discusses the contribution of ageing baby boomers to the drop in the participation rate. The article cites a new study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College concludes that the decline in the participation rate began in 2000 and will ...

Hilsenrath and McGrane Article: Not Alot of There, There

Wednesday, February 19th, 2014

I have been away from markets for the last several days and have just begun doing some reading as I have returned to AcrosstheCurve.com global headquarters. Below is a WSJ Hilsenrath and McGrane article with an aggressive headline on Fed tightening now on the FOMC radar screen. The minutes are ...

FOMC Minutes

Wednesday, February 19th, 2014

Stephen Stanley of Pierpont Securities comments on the minutes: Market participants were, as always, eager to react to the newswire headlines from the January FOMC minutes, but after Chair Yellen’s 6-hour testimony last week, there was not much new ground to cover.  News organizations were able to generate a few interesting ...

Surprise

Wednesday, February 19th, 2014

On the Citi Surprise Index via David Ader of CRT: * Our old friend, not chronological per se, Gerard Fox over at Arbor Trading has been ranting about the Citi surprise index and he's provoked us to make an observation about its recent deterioration.  Attached is the US Citi Surprise Index ...

SWAPS

Tuesday, February 18th, 2014

Swap spreads are 3/4 basis point to a basis point wider today in what one trader describes as extremely light trading. It was the first day of SEF trading as prescribed by the yahoos who wrote Dodd Frank. Traders report interest in receivng front end spreads particularly in the three ...

Treasury Market Thoughts

Tuesday, February 18th, 2014

One market participant who commented on the price action today made the interesting point that there has been a sentiment sea change. He believes that for the first time we are seeing the establishment of new long positions by traders as opposed to short covering trades or hedge lifting via ...

Capital Flows

Tuesday, February 18th, 2014

This is an analysis of the monthly Treasury report on international capital flows via Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities. China was a huge seller and foreigners were net sellers of agencies and corporates and equities. Via TDSecurities: The December TIC capital flows report showed net long-term outflows of $45.9B from US securities ...

Empire Manufacturing Via Action Economics

Tuesday, February 18th, 2014

Via Action Economics: The February Empire State headline drop to 4.48 reversed the January pop to a 20-month high of 12.51 from a lower 2.22 in December. We saw a similar ISM-adjusted February drop, to 50.6, after popping to 52.7 from a three-year low of 46.6 in December that was also seen last ...

Corporate Supply Thus Far

Tuesday, February 18th, 2014

Via the good folks at Bloomberg:   Tuesday - Feb 18 $b    Illinois Tool Works (ITW)  A2/A+  BAML/C/GS/JPM $m 3Y  IPT +35area                                                            $m  5Y  ...