Archive for February, 2014

Crossing Moving Averages

Thursday, February 20th, 2014

In a previous incarnation I worked with several of the principals at Pierpont Securities. They are professional risk takers for sure and this is an interesting piece one of their colleagues produced yesterday on instances when the 100 day moving average on the 10 year note falls below the 200 ...

MBS

Thursday, February 20th, 2014

One dealer in a note is friendly to the mortgage basis this AM. He posits that origination selling slipped back under $1 billion yesterday and he expects it to remain below the billion dollar level as slightly higher rates cap mortgage origination. In the previous week there has been a ...

Corporates Thus Far

Thursday, February 20th, 2014

Via the Good Folks at Bloomberg: Thursday - Feb 20 #$3b Canada (CANADA) Aaa/AAA  HSBC/JPM/RBC/Sco                                              Global 5Y    +11 $b  ANZ New Zealand (ANZNZ) Aa3/AA-    ANZ/C/RBC 144a/Reg-S  $m  3Y FRN  3ML ...

CRT on heavy Volume Overnight

Thursday, February 20th, 2014

Before I post an excerpt from David Ader on overnight trading volumes I should note that he also notes that there was some receiving in belly of swap curve overnight. Via David Ader of CRT: Treasury volumes were strong, 150% of average, which gives a bit of a momentum angle to the ...

More Ukraine

Thursday, February 20th, 2014

Here is a Bloomberg story from this morning on the Ukraine and its impact on markets today. This news story is less sanguine (which is not the best modifier in this situation) than the analytical piece of Mark Chandler which I posted earlier. Via Bloomberg: Kiev Chaos Jumps Borders as Markets Teeter: ...

Ukraine and the Markets

Thursday, February 20th, 2014

Here is an excerpt from the morning note to clients from Mark Chandler of Brown Brothers: In Kiev, hopes for the truce announced yesterday were quickly shattered by new deadly clashes.  Seventeen people have reportedly been killed and protestors wounded captured dozens of policeman.  Recall that yesterday there were headlines about ...

Venezuela Violence

Thursday, February 20th, 2014

In addition to the violence in the Ukraine there is also some street fighting in Venezuela following the arrest by the government of a popular opposition leader, Lepoldo Lopez. Here is a link to some background material on that dispute via private intelligence service Stratfor.

February 20 2014 Opening

Thursday, February 20th, 2014

I have returned following several days in Thomas Jefferson's backyard. Prices of Treasury coupon securities have posted modest gains from levels which prevailed about 900PM last evening. The impetus for the small yield declines was the drop in the HSBC survey of manufacturing in China which declined to 48.5 in February ...

More on Upcoming Trust Defaults in China

Thursday, February 20th, 2014

Earlier in the evening I sent out this research piece from Bank of America which detailed that firm's thoughts on the trusts in China. I only had success posting an excerpt of that article. ZeroHedge posted a more comprehensive excerpt than I did and I link to that here.

Weak PMI in China

Wednesday, February 19th, 2014

According to the HSBC manufacturing activity in China is slipping. This was worth about a 2 basis point decline for the yield on the 10 year Treasury. Via Marketwatch: By Michael Kitchen LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Chinese manufacturing is contracting as activity hits its weakest pace in seven months, according to HSBC's preliminary ...