Archive for January, 2014
Tuesday, January 28th, 2014
Prices of Treasury coupon securities have slumped in overseas trading as risk on is in vogue as the Emerging Market panic fades for the moment. The turn began yesterday with the announcement that China Trust Credit had located funding and would avert a potential January 31 default. Shortly thereafter the ...
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Tuesday, January 28th, 2014
I am just reviewing overnight news for my longer opening piece and came across this from TD Securities piece on the emergency meeting of the Turkey Central Bank. Analysts at TD believe that the huge rally in the Turkish lira from 2.39 yesterday to 2.26 as I write and as ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Analyst Thoughts on Turkey Central Bank
Monday, January 27th, 2014
Kocherlakota of Minneapolis is a voting member of the FOMC and will take a seat at the table this week. He and the other new voter, Fischer of Dallas, sat for separate interviews with the NYTimes. Here is link to the Kocherlakota text. I quickly scanned it and did not ...
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Monday, January 27th, 2014
Corporate bonds had been a hotbed of activity since the calendar page flipped to read 2014 but they have lost there appeal today and are not a topic of heated discussion. It looks like there were only two deals today; US Bank and M and T bank. The initial price ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Corporate Bonds
Monday, January 27th, 2014
The Emerging Markets sector has provided some histrionics the last several days as currencies lurch about like astronauts in zero gravity. That has generated volatility to the delight of participants but does it mean we are staring at some systemic issue? In my experience a thematic trade (Long Term Capital ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on EM and the Money Markets
Monday, January 27th, 2014
The Treasury market within my reach is a quiet place today. I have heard of some real money buyers in the back end and fast money hedge fund types buying in the belly.The yield curve has steepened from levels which prevailed when I first posted at about 700AM. The 5s ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Afternoon Miscellany
Monday, January 27th, 2014
Mortgages remain firm but what was originally two way flow is now better selling by real money accounts,principally banks and money managers. Some of the selling is in CMO space. One dealer noted that mortgages are well behaved at the moment but origination supply is light and unless that increases ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on MBS
Monday, January 27th, 2014
This post is Turkey specific. The strength in the Turkish Lira this morning is predominantly short covering in advance of the emergency meeting of the central bank. My source thinks that the markets needs 150 basis point hike to hold current levels and anything less than 100 basis points would ...
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Monday, January 27th, 2014
Mark Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman in a morning note to clients touches on some of the national developments in individual countries which contributed to the emerging market upheaval last week.
An excerpt from mark Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Yet one would be remiss if the analysis stops with these factors ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on More Emerging Market Stuff
Monday, January 27th, 2014
I find it amusing that I am following the Turkish Lira after thirty five years of benign neglect of that currency. I just engaged an aficionado of the Emerging Markets in conversation and he said that a modicum of equanimity has returned to that market. He said that he is ...
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