Archive for January, 2014
Thursday, January 9th, 2014
Canada dollar in a full throated retreat as I just observed it trading at 1.0860. Not good for those of us with a structural long! It sure looks as though it is on a mission to print 1.10 I just checked a long term chart and it actually appears that ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Oh Canada
Thursday, January 9th, 2014
Here is the just out monthly piece of investment insight from Bill Gross. He thinks that the key to 2014 is the low inflation rate as that will keep the FOMC on hold. With that he thinks that there is real value in the 1 year to 5 year part ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments »
Thursday, January 9th, 2014
Prices of Treasury coupon securities have registered very modest gains in overnight trading. In addition the dramatic flattening of the yield curve which took place yesterday has not been reversed and in some cases is actually a tad flatter. The 5s 10s curve is unchanged at 122.9 basis points.Yesterday morning ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on January 09 2014 Opening
Wednesday, January 8th, 2014
The Treasury market is suffering through some rather dramatic shifts today and participants with the wrong positions are being hoisted on a yield curve petard. I am sure the sensation is rather uncomfortable. The curve is flattening rather dramatically as we speak. So as a for instance the 5s 30s ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Wednesday, January 8th, 2014
I have always thought that the minutes of FOMC are the most pasteurized and homogenized of any government release. Anyway I have begun to wade through them and there is some interesting stuff in the very opening sections. The FOMC participants were concerned about the risks to financial stability associated ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
Wednesday, January 8th, 2014
Here is SocGens view on the Bank Of England tomorrow:
BoE is out early tomorrow morning see our local econ team preview
SG View: No change in prospect – focus turning to the FPC
Attention is focused squarely on the unemployment rate and the housing market.
In this first MPC meeting of 2014, the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Bank of England Tomorrow
Wednesday, January 8th, 2014
This is from William O'Donnell at RBS Securities:
Treasury auctioned $21B reopened 10yr notes at 3.009% versus a 1pm level of 3.005% so the auction came with a 0.4bp tail.
0.4bp tail (4 reopening average is 0.3bp thru)
Bid/Cover 2.68X (4 reopening average 2.64X)
Indirects 46.6% (4 reopening average 40.7%) ** above average
Directs 13.6% ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Ten Year Result
Wednesday, January 8th, 2014
I just received a note from a trader who reports some nibbling in 3s and off the run 3s but size quite modest. He thinks 97-27+ is key on 10s and sees support on 5s at 1.75.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Update Addendum
Wednesday, January 8th, 2014
The Treasury market trades very heavy as well it should. The ADP report put the fear of God into traders as they confront a duration drop from the Treasury.
The market held in until 1100AM ahead of the buyback and with that out of the way the only game in town ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Market Update
Wednesday, January 8th, 2014
Mortgages are about a tick tighter to Treasuries. One dealer notes that with the 10 year Treasury hovering around 3 percent buyers have emerged for that product. He adds that for now supply demand technicals overwhelmingly favor owning the MBS basis. Origination supply remains contained and end user buying and ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on MBS