Archive for December, 2013
Monday, December 23rd, 2013
I am preparing for Christmas but I thought that this was an interesting piece by Chris Low at FTN on the spending and income data this morning:
Via FTN Financial's Chris Low:
Bottom line: Consumers are spending, but it is taking a toll. The saving rate has fallen to levels last seen ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Spending
Friday, December 20th, 2013
Christmas is upon us and I want to wish everyone who reads this a holy and blessed Christmas. It is a Christian holiday but it speaks to the universal human yearning for peace and hope. I wish each of you Peace and wonderful times however you celebrate the season.
So with ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
Friday, December 20th, 2013
The price action in the Treasury market remains bifurcated but in contrast to this morning the 7 year point is registering small gains while benchmark issues in the 2 year,3 year and 5 year sector are still posting losses. The yield curve is flatter but it has rebounded from the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Update
Friday, December 20th, 2013
There was not much data overnight. S and P did downgrade the European Union one notch from AAA to AA+ and upgraded Mexico to BBB+.
There is very little meaningful data in the US today with only another revision to Q3 GDP and Kansas City Fed manufacturing on the docket.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on More Overnight News
Friday, December 20th, 2013
To comprehend the Treasury curve overnight one has to understand the word bifurcation. The root of the word is the Latin furca for fork. The bi is Latin for two of something so bifurcate is literally to fork into two branches. That is what the Treasury market has done the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
Friday, December 20th, 2013
Short rates are rising in China and that is giving central planners fits.
Via the FT
December 20, 2013 4:57 am
China cash injection fails to reassure lenders
By Simon Rabinovitch in Shanghai
An emergency cash injection by the Chinese central bank failed to calm the country’s lenders as money market rates remained at dangerously ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Central Planners Wrestling with Market Forces
Thursday, December 19th, 2013
Stephen King is the chief economist for HSBC (a firm smart enough to have employed me for a time) and he has written a cogent piece on the vagaries of forward guidance which the FT has published. My thanks to a fully paid up subscriber on the subcontinent for the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Foward Guidance Critiqued
Thursday, December 19th, 2013
The Yen just traded at 104.40 something which if you are keeping score at home and I know you are is the weakest level for that currency versus the still mighty greenback since the paroxysms which followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008.
The 7 year note ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Not Quite Midnight Miscellany
Thursday, December 19th, 2013
I was very busy today as I attended the Christmas pageant at my granddaughter's kindergarten. If you visit @acrossthecurve on Twitter there is a photo of her visiting me on my penultimate day in a trading room. Anyway, I have collected flow information from several late in day emails and ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Late in the Day Flows and Comment
Thursday, December 19th, 2013
There is a 5 year TIPS auction at 1130AM and the 7 year note at 100PM. Here are some pros and cons on the TIPS pieced together from one trader's commentary:
The Yellen led Fed is likely to be accommodative and the forward guidance in the statement and news conference suggests ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on TIPS Auction