Archive for December, 2013

Treasury Market Update

Friday, December 6th, 2013

The Treasury bond market has been a volatile place this morning. Following the release of the labor data 10s traded to 2.92 and 30s to around 3.96. Those levels proved fleeting as buyers emerged at the lower levels. In surveying dealers and the curve the buying has centered in the ...

Red or Black

Friday, December 6th, 2013

Today is the day that we spin the wheel at 830AM and call red or black. One of the labor report activities I miss each month is the pool. Everyone would put in $5 and guess the number. A month or two before I strode off into retirement I was ...

Thoughts Before the Labor Data

Thursday, December 5th, 2013

I wrote on Wednesday I believe that I thought we would see the low prices and high yields late Thursday or early tomorrow morning prior to the release of the data. That lucky prediction has come to fulfillment with the late day crack in bond prices. As a result I ...

Swaps

Thursday, December 5th, 2013

Swap spreads are tighter today with the 5 year note leading the way. I think some of it reflects the forward curve and some levels there which are leading liability driven investors to receive. In addition, there was some financial company issuance today which probably got swapped. BNP, NYLife and ...

Non Farm Payroll Survey

Thursday, December 5th, 2013

CRT Capital is an aspiring (I believe) primary dealer firm operating in a lush and prestigious Connecticut burb. We wont hold that against them. Anyway, there strategy group captained by David Ader produces some quality research and one of my favorites is there monthly pre non farm payroll survey. The key ...

ECB

Thursday, December 5th, 2013

The Euro has improved vis a vis the mighty greenback following the ECB statement this morning and the Draghi presser. One participant with whom I spoke thought that there were some short Euro positions being unwound . He thought that the more interesting piece of the press conference was the ...

Curvature

Thursday, December 5th, 2013

The Treasury curve is shifting flatter this morning and inflicting additional suffering on the belly. The 5s 30s spread is trading just inside of 244 basis points and that is a little more than a basis point narrower than when I wrote this morning at 600AM. The 5s 10s and ...

Mortgages

Thursday, December 5th, 2013

MBS opening with firm tone. There was a big reversal yesterday following a very sloppy opening which saw wider spreads and higher yields. That attracted buyers and the market stabilized. Overnight there was some modest selling in 15 year paper. As I write this MBS are about 2 1/2 ticks ...

EU on Bail Ins

Thursday, December 5th, 2013

Hot off the press from Bloomberg: EU wont oppose inflicting pain on bank bondholders. Now they will have to do their homework.   EU Commission Won’t Oppose Senior Bond Bail-Ins, Almunia Says 2013-12-05 13:37:55.408 GMT By Donal Griffin Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- EU Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the Commission “will not oppose” if national govts decide ...

December 05 2013 Opening

Thursday, December 5th, 2013

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have registered modest gains in overseas trading. The yield curve had a predilection to flatten as 5s 10s are 0.3 basis points narrower at 139.2 and 5s 30s is 1 basis point narrower at 245.1. The 10 year 30 year spread is 0.5 basis points ...