Archive for November, 2013

Merry Christmas

Friday, November 15th, 2013

Gallup conducts a poll of Christmas spending plans and the poll released yesterday was a lump of coal in the retail stocking. According to the polling firm consumers plan to spend on average $704 on Christmas gifts this season. That is a sharp decline from the October survey when consumers ...

Yen Weakness

Friday, November 15th, 2013

I wrote earlier about the yen breaching 100 and remaining below that level. The WSJ cites comments by Finance Minister Taro Aso as the proximate cause. Here is a piece of the WSJ story: Via the Wall Street Journal:   The yen on Thursday traded above 100 to the dollar for the first ...

November 15 2013 Opening

Friday, November 15th, 2013

Prices of Treasury coupon securities sagged in overseas trading. Dealers report light volumes but within that context some chunky buying of the belly via futures contracts. Asian clients were better sellers in the 10 year sector and better buyers of Long Bonds. In European time money managers sold 2 year ...

Careening Towards Lameduckery

Thursday, November 14th, 2013

I am an avid and passionate opponent of the incumbent President but I think his present weakened status derives from a flaw in our system, the two term limit for Presidents. The minute that the electorate chose Obama for a second term he was in a sense a lame duck ...

Leveraging Up

Thursday, November 14th, 2013

The Federal Reserve Bank Of New York issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit today. The authors report the first substantial growth in credit balances since the fateful year of 2008. In an encouraging note the Bank reports that the strength was broad based with strength in mortgages, ...

large Banks Downgraded

Thursday, November 14th, 2013

Moody's has downgraded Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and bank of New York Mellon.

Swap Spreads

Thursday, November 14th, 2013

Swap spreads continue to grind tighter. Dealers attribute the slow grind to several factors. We are in a low vol environment and there is no rush  hedge and pay. The low vol backdrop also has some of the any yield is good yield crowd receiving. One participant who is close ...

Bond Auction

Thursday, November 14th, 2013

I have mixed views on Long Bond as do participants with whom I spoke. The yield is still behind 3.75 and that will attract some interest. The curve versus intermediates (5s) is at cycle wides and that should bring forth some demand. And when viewed against other sovereign bonds it ...

MBS

Thursday, November 14th, 2013

Mortgages opened tighter and remain that way, outperforming Treasuries by about 2 ticks. The FNMA 3 s are the best performer on the day. Fifteen year paper lags the 30 year paper by 1 and 2 ticks. Origination supply is negligible today.

Agency Privitization Story

Thursday, November 14th, 2013

There was a story floating around yesterday about hedge fund proposal to privatize FNMA and Freddie Mac. I do not think that has any chance of getting off the ground. Wall Street dealers and politicians have a vested interest in keeping that playground open so I do not think that ...