Archive for November, 2013
Tuesday, November 19th, 2013
Swaps spreads continue to tighten. In a post yesterday I noted that much of the move here is bad positions. I just spoke with a swap trader with whom I did not converse yesterday (so an independent voice) and he echoed the sentiment that I heard yesterday that dealers and ...
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Tuesday, November 19th, 2013
This morning marked the release of the quarterly Employment Cost Index. Economists at Action Economics noted that wage gains were subdued and reflect ongoing softness in labor market.In Q3 wages increased 0.3 percent versus 0.4 percent in the previous quarter.The 0.3 percent level matched cycle lows in Q3 and Q4 ...
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Tuesday, November 19th, 2013
Prices of Treasury coupon securities have posted modest losses in another relatively quiet overnight trading session. The belly of the curve suffered in the slight down trade. The 5 s/10 s spread is 1/2 basis point flatter and the 10s 30 spread is 0.6 basis point flatter. The 5s 30s ...
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Monday, November 18th, 2013
Someone mentioned to me that there is little supply to lean against this week (just reopening of 10 year TIPS for $13 billion) while the Federal Reserve will be in six times taking out between $14 billion and $18 billion. So the supply demand dynamic is favorable.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Quick Thought on Treasury Market
Monday, November 18th, 2013
The recent government shutdown has gotten buried in the story of the incompetence of the Obama Administration as that Administration maladministers the roll out of its signature initiative, health care reform. One of the results of the agreement which ended the shutdown was a budget conference which would decide on ...
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Monday, November 18th, 2013
Swap spreads have dropped significantly since earlier in the month. For example, on November 04 the 5 year spread was 15.5 basis points and the 10 year spread was 14 basis points. As I pen this electronic missive the 5 year is at 10 and the 10 year is at ...
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Monday, November 18th, 2013
The Treasury market is rallying nicely today on modest client flow with the 2.67 percent yield on the 10 year near its lowest level since November 5. What is the proximate cause of the improvement in price and sentiment? Dealers cite a number of factors. There is an old adage ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Afternoon Update
Monday, November 18th, 2013
i was just chatting with a former colleague about how it is beginning to feel like 1999 in equities. Everyday brings new highs and Mom and Pop in Hicksville and Levittown are giddy with excitement as the wealth effect trickles down. Then this WSJ story scrolled across and described the ...
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Monday, November 18th, 2013
Mortgages are outperforming today by a couple of ticks. Retail interest is light and the continued presence of the Federal Reserve as a buyer makes it difficult for spreads in this market to back up appreciably.
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Monday, November 18th, 2013
Corporate bond spreads remain robustly bid. One manifestation of that is the IG-21 which for the very first time since man learned to walk erect traded below 70 today. Spreads grind tighter and there is still a hoard of cash on the sidelines seeking sanctuary. My corporate bond salesperson friend ...
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