Archive for November, 2013
Wednesday, November 6th, 2013
The Treasury yield curve in the words of a veteran analyst is "power steepening ". The 5s 30s spread is now 243 and we have clearly broken out. At these levels it might force investors out of long held structural positions as the mark to market pain becomes onerous.
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Wednesday, November 6th, 2013
Treasury announced the refunding auctions and they will sell 3s, 10s and 30s next week. They also announced that they will sell a 2 year floating rate note in January. This will be the inaugural issue for that program. It will float off the rate of the weekly three month ...
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Wednesday, November 6th, 2013
The Treasury curve is breaking out to new levels of steepness. The 5 year/30 year is at its widest level of the year at nearly 241 basis points. I am having computer issues today so I am Bloombergless today but I believe that the area between 235 and 240 on ...
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Wednesday, November 6th, 2013
Hilsenrath at the WSJ is running a story overnight about a Federal Reserve internal research paper which suggests that the economy would benefit if the FOMC lowered its unemployment threshold/target to something less than the 6.5 which currently guides the Committee's policy deliberations. I just found this storyfrom late yesterday ...
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Tuesday, November 5th, 2013
Tomorrow the Treasury will announce the details of the November refunding package which will include as usual a 3 year note, a 10 year note and a 30 year bond. When I began in the business in the late 1970s this announcement was akin to the Academy Award nominations in ...
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Tuesday, November 5th, 2013
It is a year too late unfortunately and Barack Obama did win the only poll that matters,the election last year,but his approval rating at the respected Gallup poll is at a two year low. He is quickly sliding into lame duckery and irrelevance.
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Tuesday, November 5th, 2013
The Treasury market is still under heavy pressure and any bounce thus far is reminiscent of a moribund feline striking pavement following plunge from on high. The curve is a tad steeper than when I wrote earlier but 5s 30s is still not through 237 basis points which appears to ...
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Tuesday, November 5th, 2013
Bloomberg reports that the Obama Administration will release data sometime next week on enrollment under the socialized medical benefits program mandated by the so called Affordable Care Act. The woman Bloomberg notes as testifying is head of the government agency responsible for Medicare and Medicaid. (I had to visit Wikipedia ...
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Tuesday, November 5th, 2013
The 5s 30s spread is a tad north of 236. The widest level of the year was in March at just under 237. If we breach 237 and sustain trading above that level it would be particularly ugly technical signal for long end.
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Tuesday, November 5th, 2013
Treasury market taking a sound thrashing today with 10 year testing resistance at 2.66 percent. Dealers report heavy selling by end users of 5 year sector and 7 year sector. Central banks were among the sellers in the 5s and 7s and fast money clients were scaling into 10s 30s ...
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